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As WiMAX Commercial Launches Begin in India, Will it Give Copper a Run for the Money?
By Sridhar T. Pai, CEO,
Tonse Telecom and
Maravedis partner
The WiMAX eagle is preparing for takeoff. But that is leaving DSL service behind
as copper runs for cover. Many telecom observers in India do not believe that
broadband is going to be big in that country. The reasons cited include lack of
spectrum, high computer prices), high bandwidth rates, and weak demand for
broadband. But I disagree. Broadband is in the position that cellular once was.
Even as late as 2005, none of the operators expected the wireless industry to
acquire more than 5.5 million new subscribers each month for 15 consecutive
months. This growth rate is now a reality and the run rate continues unabated.
As a result, the cellular subscriber base has overshot industry expectations and
crossed 170 million by May 2007.
Given the right conditions for growth – policy,
spectrum and price-points, why shouldn’t the broadband market take off the same
way?
The Latest in Broadband
In fact, broadband in India will not be just big, it will be massive! And if you
look carefully, wireless broadband has already started making a beginning.
Despite all the debate about lack of spectrum, the early birds have begun doping
the airwaves. VSNL (Videsh Sanchar Nigam Limited, India’s leading ISP) and
Reliance Communications (belongs to the Reliance Group, India’s top tier private
sector business house) have already initiated major city-wide initiatives. While
VSNL is still trialing in Bangalore with 4 Base Stations in North Bangalore and
tariffs are not out yet – Reliance has gone a step forward with about a dozen
Base Stations already in the ground and commercial service initiated. The plan
is to build out a base coverage of Bangalore city and start a Pune-wide
deployment before moving into Hyderabad.
Paradoxically, the Year of Broadband, the aggressive position taken by the
government to draw attention to the low penetration of broadband in the country)
got off to a poor quarter, with the chief proponent of this initiative, former
Telecoms Minister Mr. Maran, no longer around to make it happen. But it was
probably the most appropriate position the government of India (GOI) could have
taken, against a backdrop of broadband policy that is targeting 9 million
broadband subscribers by Dec. 2007 – a sharp increase from the 2.43 million
actual subscribers by mid-May. It may seem unclear how roughly 6.5 million
subscribers will be brought into the fold in the remaining 6 months.
The spectrum imbroglio continues among the various stakeholders – the Department
of Telecommunications, the Ministries of Defense and Space, and the Planning
Commissions. It is encouraging that the operators nonetheless are proceeding
with deployments.
The Most Important Developments
1. Despite spectrum hurdles, the operators have gone ahead with the bands they
currently own. This early-market start will provide some quick learning about
radio deployment issues, fine-tuning and antenna alignment challenges, RF
optimization, vendor evaluation, and customer experience monitoring.
2. That operators are pushing ahead with existing spectrum also indicates to the
policy makers and regulators that they are serious about BWA (broadband
wireless). This is bound to coax the Ministries involved to make future
decisions more expeditiously.
3. The approach is also defiant of the incumbents who would not open the last
mile and are seeing erosion of their fixed-line base, which was down to about
40.3 million as of March 2007.
4. Most of the operators have major BWA/WiMAX initiatives in the advanced
planning phase, while others have already started work in select states or
regions.
For the cultural melting pot of India, a tech soup is hardly new. With several
tiers of population, income levels, and needs, there will be a heterogeneous mix
of broadband technologies deployed in parallel. Metro Ethernet, PON, satellite
broadband, outdoor Wi-Fi, microwave, DSL, coax, and wireless broadband
technologies are all going to be in the fray.
While each technology will find its place, WiMAX, with its technical superiority
and ease of deployment, is likely to come out with flying colors. The
demand-pull for WiMAX is so strong that even spectrum policy snags may not be
able to keep this eagle from flying.
Sridhar T. Pai
Sridhar Pai, is CEO and founder of Tonse Telecom and is Maravedis partner for
the Indian market. Sridhar has spent over 13 years in the global telecom
industry and most recently was director marketing at IntelliNet Technologies
Inc., a leading signaling infrastructure developer. Prior to that, Sridhar was
head of VoIP business at Network Solutions. He also was part of the original
team that incubated the softswitch product at Xybridge Technologies Inc. (later
acquired by Zhone Technologies). Sridhar started his career with Motorola ISG
group (Singapore and India). His functional expertise has been technology
research, product marketing and marketing communications for the telecom
industry.
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