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AT&T/Bell South Merger Approval and WiMAX
The FCC finally approved the merger. What does it mean for the WiMAX industry?
Last week, the Federal Communications Commission approved the merger of AT&T (in reality, the former Southwestern and Pac Bells) and Bell South. This leaves the US with 3 RBOCs (major telcos) and one telco covering some of the largest markets (California, Texas and Florida). What does this have to do with WiMAX? Let me forward a few of scenarios:
1. AT&T execs identify WiMAX as the best possible 4G access solution, and, like Sprint Nextel, announce plans to deploy WiMAX. WiMAX vendors succeed wildly in sales to AT&T (many are called, maybe 3 are chosen)
2. AT&T execs ignore WiMAX in favor of NOT upgrading the network, but rather milking the circuit switched copper wire infrastructure (remember there are decades of dissimilar vendor platforms comprising the former Pac Bell, Southwestern Bell and Bell South networks) to the bitter end. Gives rise to new market entrants armed with WiMAX and IMS core infrastructures offering quadruple play of services highly competitive to anything AT&T can offer. AT&T loses market share to those more nimble market players
3. AT&T bets on fiber to the premises (FTTP) at $2,000 per home passed for triple play (not quadruple play) of services. How does AT&T compete at $2,000 per home passed vs. an estimated $15 per home passed for a WiMAX-based service provider?
Of course there is the potential for a 500 page study on evaluating the new AT&T's options vis-à-vis WiMAX (what about Cingular?). Tune in next year to see which way AT&T turns….
Frank Ohrtman
WMX Systems
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