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What now for US WiMAX spectrum?
More options now: 2.5 GHz/3.65GHz/700 MHz
A year ago I said that WiMAX is going to have
real problems getting off the ground in the US due to what I called a
"regulatory trainwreck" in regards to spectrum policy. At the time, a budding
WiMAX operator had their choice of going unlicensed (very few success stories
there) or going licensed focused on pricey 2.5 GHz spectrum with the potential
of following the old (not to be confused with the new) NextWave story (cellular
operator went broke buying spectrum).
Much has changed in the last twelve months. Firstly, the FCC opened 50 MHz in
the 3.65 GHz band for "non-exclusive access" while not exactly "free" or
protected spectrum, it is a significant improvement over the prospects of 5.8
GHz use (popular as unlicensed backhaul or in Wi-Fi-related operations). There
are many ways an operator might weave this spectrum into their business plans
(rural, first mover, low cost per sub, best effort residential, roaming, etc).
Secondly, the FCC seems to break the mold on spectrum auctions by potentially
dictating an open subscriber device mandate for 700 MHz auction winners, the FCC
appears to be shifting the discussion toward a WiMAX open architecture framework
for this band. Where a commercial operator seeks a national footprint for WiMAX,
700 MHz might just be the ticket. The notion that much of it must be open
architecture might preclude conventional cellular and other operators (cable TV)
from bidding on this spectrum as their business plans dictate a monolithic,
monopolistic vertical industrial organization unable to compete in a horizontal
market structure.
Finally, the big question is now how the vendor community will respond.
Offerings for 2.5 GHz 802.16d or "e" are slow in coming. I have seen a few spec
sheets that mention a 700 MHz product on the road map. Given the auction is
early next year, it would be a good idea to get ramped up now. The good news
about 3.65 GHz is that many existing 3.5 GHz products made for non-US markets
should work well at 3.65 GHz. Smart vendors will be taking orders at WiMAX World
in Chicago (September 25-27, see you there) for those 3.5 cum 3.65 GHz
platforms. Have you done your market study for these bands?
One ultimate conclusion to take away from these developments: don't speculate on
spectrum! The 2.5 GHz WiMAX hegemony predicted for Sprint Nextel and Clearwire
may not happen given potential competition from competitors on other bands which
may allow any variety of competitive advantages (better propagation on 700 MHz,
"free" spectrum on 3.65 GHz, for example) to those operators (the stuff for a
detailed competitive analysis for vendor and service provider, alike).
Frank Ohrtman
WMX Systems
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