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DSL subscribers expected to contribute to global WiMAX growth
Juniper Research forecasts 47m 802.16e-2005 subscribers in 2013.
Juniper Research forecasts that up to 12 percent
of the global DSL installed base will be substituted by IEEE 802.16e-2005
(802.16e) subscribers by 2013. The Far East will lead with over one-fifth of the
47m subscribers in 2013. The region by region analysis found that there is a
significant opportunity now for WiMAX as a DSL substitute technology.
The majority of 802.16e trials and network contracts being announced will
commence with fixed wireless broadband services. Mobile usage will develop after
the initial demand for fixed and portable services, creating an additional
benefit for subscribers. As a result of this phased approach to implementation,
a migration from existing wired subscribers is expected to accompany the
introduction of wireless service.
"WiMAX will be an attractive offer in areas where there are no wired networks,
and in areas where the existing DSL speed is suboptimal," says Howard Wilcox of
Juniper Research. "WiMAX will solve the broadband access problem for users
located at the fringes of DSL coverage. This is in fact the case in a number of
developed nations such as UK, USA, Ireland and Scandinavia, and WiMAX network
operators are deploying networks to address this market need."
The opportunity for WiMAX in developing countries is quite different. A lack of
basic telecommunications infrastructure is the motivation for alternative
technologies, such as WiMAX, to provide first connectivity. Markets like India
have low cell phone and PC penetration. Significant change in business model and
perceived value by consumers is necessary to make an impact.
Juniper's report concludes that the top 3 geographic regions (Far East, North
America and Western Europe) will represent over 60 percent of the USD20 billion
global WiMAX service revenues by 2013.
By Jeff Orr
ORR Technology, LLC
