Top 10 Key Take-Aways from WiMAX World 2008

The 2008 WiMAX World show wrapped up this week in Chicago and offered a nice perspective on the industry and the possibilities of full-mobility, wireless broadband connectivity.

The show also coincided this week with the announcement by Sprint on the commercial launch of its XOHM WiMAX network in Baltimore.  Below are a few highlights and perspectives from the week:

(1) WiMAX ecosystem is growing & beginning to scale

WiMAX now includes over 100 global commercial deployments and growing.  Hundreds of devices have been developed and the WiMAX Forum numbers over 500 members committed to building WiMAX products and services.  With recent wave 2 certifications, WiMAX ecosystem partners are ready for large scale deployments.

The advantages of WiMAX are clear, especially in emerging markets where it is the undisputed technology for wireless broadband access.  WiMAX equipment is available now and has cost advantages compared to other technologies.  "WiMAX is cheaper to deploy compared to cellular networks and the infrastructure cost less," according to Fred Wright, Motorola Senior VP, during his keynote.

(2) Sprint delivers XOHM



On Monday, Sprint announced the commercial roll-out of their first WiMAX network for the Baltimore market in-line with time tables announced earlier this year from XOHM's president Bary West.  Although impacted by prior delays, the launch still represented one of the fastest deployments for any technology, from approval of the 802.16e standard in late 2005 to full commercial deployment.  Although capable of higher speeds, Sprint is advertising average down-link speeds of 2-4 Mbs.  Laptop Magazine has a nice evaluation of the Baltimore network and comparison to Verizon's EVDO network.

With the launch, Sprint also announced their new open, no-contract service plans that allows customers to pick plan according to their usage, including day passes for $10 and monthly service options for $25-$30.

(3) Clearwire on track

During his keynote, Clearwire CEO Ben Wolff, cited operations in 46 markets covering 16M people with over 500K subscribers on its current "pre-WiMAX" network, with plans to expand to markets covering 60-80M people by end of 2009 and 120-140M by the end of 2010.  The new WiMAX network will be rolled-out as an overlay in its existing markets giving its customer the option to switch on their schedule.  "We will operate two networks simultaneously and that way we won't have to force customers to switch over," said Wolff.

Also notable was the amount of new subscribers that Clearwire has aquired in markets where customers already have broadband.  Reportedly, 95% have access to either cable or DSL options and 2/3 were switching from existing broadband services.  People's ability to "take their broadband experience with them" and "converged services" was driving the demand.  Wolff also note that "increased productivity and new applications are possible" when people have access to their content where ever they go.

Wolff also re-iterated that the new Clearwire (the new venture with Sprint, Intel, Google and cable companies) is on track to close this year.  The FCC has also expressed their intention to finalize regulatory approval before the end of the year and the new administration takes office.


(4) Current 3G networks will struggle with increased data usage

New internet applications are driving increased demands on existing networks.  The amount of data on networks is doubling every 2 years.  During his keynote, Dan Moloney, Executive Vice President, Motorola, Inc., mentioned that over 27% of traffic on the internet now is from YouTube videos.  These applications can only scale on 4G networks with an all IP core.

We have seen these problems now with the iPhone on its current 3G network which was primarily built for voice traffic.  Although capable of achieving higher speeds, most users experience 400-700 Kbps.  Performance will only degrade as more subscribers are added to the network.


(5) LTE is not a natural migration from GSM. 

In the 4G community, a popular reason often cited for the adoption of LTE by existing GSM carriers is that it will be an upgrade from the current 3G networks and will require less capex.  According to Siavash Almouti, Intel Fellow and Chief Technology Officer of the Mobility Wireless Group, this is just not true. 

"Any migration from 3G to LTE will require a Forklift upgrade and require the replacement of 90-95% of the existing capex," says Almouti.  "It is ok for operators to say that they are selecting LTE for roadmap or vendor considerations, but the same infrastructure changes and investments will be necessary for any migration to an all IP based 4G network."


(6) Stickers will not improve the performance of a 3G network.



On Monday, the GSM community issued a press release (coincidently on the same day that Sprint launched the XOHM network in Baltimore) that they were launching a $1B (that's billion) marketing campaign to promote the adoption of 3G HSDPA networks.  According to the press release, they have come up with a new campaign along with a badge to put on the devices.  The companies behind the initiative include Dell, Ericson, and Qualcomm among others.

(7) The future 802.16m WIMAX profile is VERY fast

During his keynote, Siavash Alamouti with Intel outlined some of the details on the follow-on to the 802.16e standard.  It is reported to offer theoretical speeds up to 300MB with full mobility up to 350KM.  The profile will also support both FDD and TDD and be fully back-ward compatible with the current networks being deployed. 

(8) Cisco's Beam Forming Technology allows for better in-building propagation

Ok, in full disclosure, I should mention that Cisco is a WiMAX.com sponsor, but thought this is an interesting point.  There has been a lot of discussion lately on femtocells as a way to improve signal performance within buildings.  Femtocells are small micro-base stations that are used inside buildings to increase performance and coverage and then back-hauled over the buildings broadband service.

Cisco, as well as several other carriers, use advanced beam-forming technology to get near 100% in building coverage even with spectrum at 3.5Ghz.  This just illustrates that even though two products may be WiMAX Certified™ and comply with interoperability standards, there are still many other performance factors to consider when based on the requirements and business models being implemented.


(9) Motorola has the best looking WiMAX USB Dongle



There were a number of USB WIMAX dongles and reference designs on the show floor from various vendors.  The USBw 100 WiMAX adapter below supports 2.3, 2.5 and 3.5 GHz bands and will be available for the Chicago launch.  The device also won "Best of WiMAX World" awards in two categories:  Best Peripheral Device & Industry Choice


(10) The XOHM CPE still looks like a two-handled coffee mug!



The ZyXEL MAX-206M2 CPE is the residential gateway CPE that Sprint is deploying in its Baltimore launch.  Apparently the design allows for multiple antennas and better performance.
 

Friday, October 03, 2008 in Business  | Permalink |  Comments (0)