Clearwire Provides Additional Details on Its 4G Developer Program

With its mobile WiMAX deployments on track and proceeding ahead of schedule, Clearwire has been working with silicon vendors and device makers to create tool kits, reference designs, and Application Program Interfaces (APIs) to exploit the dynamic capabilities of its mobile WiMAX network.

We will describe the functional capabilities of these platforms below, while noting that they are mostly "works in progress" and continue to evolve.   We'll also provide a perspective on premium video services and why we think they could be a big differentiator between Mobile WiMAX and 3G.   But let's first review the characteristics of the CLEAR network.

Positioning Clearwire's Mobile WiMAX Network:

Clearwire's WiMAX service (known as CLEAR) currently reaches about 30 million U.S.   residents.   The company plans to make CLEAR available to about 120 million people by the end of 2010 (that means the network will be available to that many potential subscribers).   Clearwire has stated that at the end of the third quarter of 2009 it had about 555,000 subscribers, which includes people who have subscribed to the service via its MVNO partners Sprint, Comcast, and Time Warner, which are reselling the service.   Clearwire reported it added 173,000 new WiMAX subscribers in the third quarter of 2009.

In our opinion, Clearwire's biggest asset is its huge chunk of wireless spectrum in the 2.5 GHz range.   The company says it owns an average of 150 MHz of 2.5GHz spectrum in most major markets.   For wireless networks, the amount of spectrum owned directly translates into subscriber bandwidth and coverage area.   The more spectrum owned, the faster the data rates and/or the more subscribers served within a given sector.   This results in higher throughput and lower latency.   At the Sprint Developers Conference on October 27th, Clearwire's Scott Richardson confidently stated that "spectrum trumps technology" and that "the spectrum owned will separate WiMAX from LTE."

Mr. Richardson very confidently stated, "We have a super fast (wireless broadband) network which you can think of as a "bit factory" for all IP traffic- for both households and machine-to-machine (M2M ) applications.   The bits will go to retail or wholesale customers (MVNOs).   In the future, we will have other wholesale customers that will use CLEAR as a backbone network.   Our evolving business model(s) will enable a whole new set of applications.   This will enable a richer web experience for mobile users.   Clearwire will have U.S.  nationwide coverage by 2011 and will be able to fill the broadband mobile Internet vortex.   By 2011, the killer 4G application will be cloud computing on the go."

On its last earnings call, Clearwire CEO William T. Morrow stated: "Our objective remains the same -- to aggressively expand our 4G network with nationwide coverage, delivering the best possible user experience in capturing a strong share of the growing mobile data market.   At the same time we are building out new markets, we are converting most of the remaining pre-WiMAX markets to 4G.   Since we utilize many of the existing network sites, this process is less capital intensive than new market builds and our sales channels are already largely in place.   Since we have purposefully reduced our marketing efforts with this service, our expectation continues to be that we will see a higher than normal level of churn within our pre-WiMAX markets until we complete the market conversion."

"This past quarter we also formally launched our Silicon Valley innovation network, providing developers with network tools, APIs, and free access to our WiMAX network.   This new sandbox will enable them to create, test, and build applications that leverage the unmatched combination of speed and mobility delivered by the 4G network.   After just under two months, we have developers spanning 400 companies and universities across Silicon Valley.   "


CLEAR Silicon Valley Innovation Network, December 2009
(visit website for latest maps)


On wireless net neutrality, Clearwire's Chief Commercial Officer Mike Sievert stated: "Clearwire applauds the FCC Chairman's efforts to safeguard an open Internet and his desire to strike a balance between consumers' need for open, rich access to the Internet and appropriate network management practices." For some time, Clearwire has stated that it will provide equal access on its broadband wireless network to all Internet services and applications.   We wonder how much Clearwire is influenced by Google - one of its investors and partners--which has been one of the most outspoken proponents of Net Neutrality.  


Clearwire Developer Program Initiatives:

At the Sprint Developers Conference and in follow up phone calls and email exchanges, Clearwire's Dave Rees, Aaron Hinkle, and Art Spivy provided information on the company's development platforms, their status, and how they relate to various use cases.

There are currently three available platforms for apps developers: Location, Client Connectivity, Activation & Provisioning reference implementations.  Note: The Activation & Provisioning platform was added after this article was written.  It details the processes that devices will use to access the mobile WiMAX network.  Those processes include: network entry, IP acquisition, authentication, subscription creation, and many others.  Please refer here for details.

The Location Platform supports two network APIs.  The first is the JSON Client/Server API that allows clients on devices to access that device's location within a Sector.  The second is a Parlay X API that allows servers to get a remote device's location (e.g. to track the location of family or friends).  Clearwire uses certificate-based mutual authentication to secure requests against this second service.  As there are very serious privacy concerns with remote location tracking, a written agreement must be signed by each device owner who consents to be tracked.  (Editors Note: The terms for using location are specified on Clearwire's Developer web site.  Any developer using the location platform must follow CTIA's "Best Practices and Guidelines for Location Based Services".  These practices include having the developer obtain opt-in consent to using location from the customer.)

On its Developers web site, Clearwire recently created a web demo based on their Client/Server JSON API.  By clicking on a link, a query will be sent to both Clearwire's and Google's location platforms and the results will be plotted on a map. 

The Client Connectivity Platform is a Connection Manager reference implementation for connecting to WiMAX.  It is intended to help device and software developers better understand how to connect to WiMAX and support efforts to build devices that to connect to WiMAX.  The Client Connectivity Platform uses a "Common API" for accessing its drivers.  This is a proposed I/O driver API standard from the WiMAX Forum.  Clearwire has been working with chip set manufacturers and the WiMAX Forum on this effort.  When it's considered mature, Clearwire would like to make it part of its commercial deployments. 

Clearwire refers to the "Common API" concept as a "Session Information API." It would allow developers to access network, radio, connection, and device information through a client API.  That information would be exposed by the WiMAX silicon I/O driver that implemented the API and made available on request to the application program.  In addition to the proposed Common API standard, Clearwire is also looking at the possibility of sharing the same information at the Connection Manager level to other applications.  In either case, the goal is a commercially available, distributed, public accessible API that developers can use for a variety of use cases (including alternative connection manager interfaces, determining location, and client applications adjust bit rates based on RF conditions).  While Clearwire is working hard to solidify the exact mechanism for exchanging this information between the chip set I/O driver and the Applications program, they don't yet have a time-line on when an "official API" will be deployed on commercial devices that connect to CLEAR. 

Dave Rees was kind enough to clarify and update the list of functional modules and capabilities that he and Aaron Hinkle described at the Sprint Developers conference.  These includes the Location platform which is briefly described above and in more detail on the Clear Developers web site.  Clearwire does not yet have a time-line for the realization of these capabilities for developers.

Location - The location platform is now available as a network service.  Clearwire sees location as a key enabler for the types of services that take advantage of WiMAX bandwidth and mobility. 

-Client/Server location is based on the Call Sector (1/3 of a Cell) that the device is physically present.  No GPS or client hardware is required.  The result provided is a longitude/ latitude for the center of the Sector.  A corresponding street address may be optionally requested.  Accuracy was said to be within 400m to 800m.  Computation time is < 1 second.

-Server/Server location allows one server to ask another for a remote device location using the latter's IP or 802.16 MAC address.  The resulting response is the longitude/ latitude for the center of the sector the remote device is physically in.

-Assisted GPS capability queries the network location service to more quickly fix the devices location.  Clearwire doesn't yet have an official target date for when Assisted GPS will be released.

-Multi-lateration is the process of locating an object by accurately computing the time difference of arrival (TDOA) of a signal emitted from that object to three or more receivers.  It also refers to the case of locating a receiver by measuring the TDOA of a signal transmitted from three or more synchronized transmitters.  In Clearwire's planned implementation, a given device type will be connected to one Base Station, but will also been scanned by Base Station receivers in neighboring sectors.  Clearwire doesn't yet have an official target date for when multi-lateration will be released.

Access Authentication is a secure authentication mechanism for an API.  It is not actually a functional module.

RF Awareness - Will be provided as part of the Session Information API described above.  While the WiMAX chip set I/O driver will provide the relevant RF parameters (e.g.  received signal quality, signal strength, transmit power, etc) the client applications will be responsible for using that information to do things like adjust bit rate, video frame rate or resolution.  Some video clients already do this based on packet loss (e.g.  Slingbox on a 3G network), but that is primitive compare to pre-emptive packet loss adjustments.  RF Awareness information will surely help video clients (both one way and bidirectional chat/conferencing) make even better decisions about adjusting video parameters sooner.

Editors Note: Mobile Internet video is much more variable and dynamic than fixed line broadband Internet video.  A mobile network will produce very different downstream bit rates as the subscriber transits a cell or sector or from one network (3G) to another (mobile WiMAX).  This is because the mobile subscriber experiences different RF signal characteristics while in motion.  The changing signal conditions will negatively impact the mobile video experience, unless the video resolution, video frame rate or bit rate is adjusted to match the received signal quality and strength.  For a good video experience, we recommend an optimized mobile video player from all of the proponent companies (e.g.  Adobe Flash, Microsoft Media Player, Real Player, Apple Quicktime, etc). 

A couple of competing ways of offering mobile video are described at:
http://www.flotv.com/whats-on-flo-tv/guide
http://www.openmobilevideo.com/


Data Session Continuity (between 3G and CLEAR) - This is currently in concept phase.  Clearwire is looking at ways of providing it, but they don't have a time-line yet for when it might be publicly available.

Device Management - This really is a function of the connection manager, so it's not a separate developer platform or API.  Clearwire does plan to provide device information through the Session Information API.  In fact, Clearwire hopes to eventually provide more information (like historical info) through the Session Information API. 

Diagnostics - This is also is currently in concept phase.  Clearwire is examining ways of providing it, but like Data Sesssion Continuity, they don't have a time-line yet for when it might be publicly available. 

Service Level QoS - Clearwire has an internal QoS implementation that is said to be compliant with IEEE 802.16e standard and the WiMAX Forum profiles (see Table 1.  below), but the actual QoS mechanism to be made available to value added services and applications is still in the planning stage.  There are currently active discussions occurring with their business, technical, legal and policy teams. 

While there are five QoS classes defined in the IEEE 802.16e standard (see Table 1.  below) and implemented in WiMAX silicon, there are other ways to provide QoS.  For example, it can be done via IP v6 priority bits, DiffServ, MPLS, or other higher layer mechanisms that are combined with port information and deep packet inspection.  But at this time, Clearwire has not selected a QoS mechanism and does not yet have a time-line for how and when to make QoS more generally available.


Table 1.  IEEE 802.16e-2005 QoS classes
Note:  The base station and the subscriber station use a service flow with an appropriate QoS class (plus other parameters, such as bandwidth and delay) to ensure that application data receives QoS treatment appropriate to the application.

Comment:  Without agreed upon QoS mechanisms, there are no special provisions for delay sensitive apps (like mobile VoIP or music), real time high bandwidth apps (like premium content streaming video), jitter sensitive apps (like real time video conferencing or video surveillance), or other high priority services (e.g.  emergency or first responder/ public safety communications).  Of course, there may be sufficient overall bandwidth in a given cell or sector such that delay, jitter and throughput sensitive apps get what they need and there is no congestion to bypass.

Perspective:  While Clearwire would like to have more platforms and APIs available now, it takes time to develop them in conjunction with chip set vendors, device makers, systems integrators and other partners.  When Clearwire representatives talk about these APIs with developers and partners, they also emphasize the speed and the capacity of the CLEAR network. 

Clearwire believes that "the APIs described above will certainly help many developers, but a much larger set of developers and customers will benefit from having broadband speeds on the go - not just on laptops, but handsets, and other types of consumer electronics as well.  And those services won't necessarily come from us, lots of folks are working on higher bandwidth mobile services (e.g.  Hulu, Google and others are working on higher quality video conferencing, augmented reality).  We plan to provide a network that attracts customers by enabling and encouraging all of these services."


Assessment and Conclusions:

Clearwire has said they won't compete with incumbent wireless operators who are serving "a different market all together." Clearwire wants to emphasize high speed, low latency and mobility.   We agree that will differentiate CLEAR from 3G and DSL/Cable broadband access.   But we firmly believe that in addition to a broadband Internet bit factory over the airwaves, services and applications are urgently needed for CLEAR.   And Clearwire is trying to make this happen with tools planned for developers.

But despite the commendable efforts on tool kits, platforms and APIs, Clearwire will be late to the apps party.   In a recent front page article, the San Jose Mercury states, "apps woo Web traffic and consumer interest back to the platform, the way flowers attract honeybees to their pollen.   The popularity of Apple's iPhone and its more than 100,000 apps that allow users to check everything from surf conditions to a bank balance has accelerated the trend."

The premium video services that this author envisions (with better quality than best effort Internet) include: Sprint TV premium content (like NFL Sunday ticket), Comcast On-Demand On line, live sporting events (mlb.com, nba leage pass broadband, nhl.com, etc), video surveillance and alarming (via an IP VPN), 2 way live video chat, closed circuit TV for e-learning or other use.   The video services that would be acceptable over best effort mobile WiMAX include: You Tube, playback of news or sports clips, or any other "bite sized" chunks of video from a web site.   However, even those would be more appreciated with dynamic video parameter adjustment based on RF Awareness.

If hooks were available to realize differentiated services like those described above, software developers might be encouraged to create useful applications for notebooks, netbooks, and other devices with embedded mobile WiMAX interfaces.   That in turn, will entice more subscribers to sign up for mobile WiMAX service, which will encourage more applications and devices.   We submit that such a virtuous cycle will NOT occur if WiMAX just offers fast Internet access on notebooks, netbooks, and through portable WiFi hot spots.

Since CLEAR coverage won't be nationwide for some time, it will be essential to have 3G/4G data cards in WiMAX enabled PCs so that 3G-EVDO is available when CLEAR is not.   That is starting to happen now thanks to Sprint.   (This author has a 3G/4G USB data card).   Session continuity between 3G and mobile WiMAX will be important for mobile users on the go.   But apps and hand held devices will be even more important.   Let's hope we see lots of activity in both areas in 2010.

Alan J. Weissberger
IEEE ComSocSCV

 

Wednesday, December 16, 2009 in Business  | Permalink |  Comments (21)

Sequans Silicon to Power New WiMAX CPE & Devices

Highly integrated, low cost components to be embedded in a variety of home, portable and mobile WiMAX devices next year. Company readies for massive growth of 4G mobile Internet gadgets.

By combining several silicon functional blocks on a single chip and using a "state of the art" 65nm semiconductor process, Sequans Communications Inc. has developed a family of WiMAX components that has the potential to enable a mass market for WiMAX CPE and mobile/ portable devices.  It's that mass market that semiconductor companies urgently need to become profitable.  Selling huge volumes of chips increases economies of scale, which drives down manufacturing costs and bill of materials prices.  This results in lower cost, higher performance end user products.  If there is sufficient customer demand, a virtuous cycle takes hold.  This trend is clearly evident in smart phones, notebook PCs, set top boxes and other electronic gizmos and gadgets.  With good customer acceptance, more and more functions are packed into smaller and less expensive devices.

Earlier this year, we interviewed Sequans executives and moderated a panel session in which they participated (see references 1 & 2 below).  In 2010, we expect to see the Sequans SQN 1200 family of silicon to be embedded in new types of multi-functional WiMAX CPE, portable WiFi hot spots with integrated WiMAX radios, netbooks and (at long last) smart phones with WiMAX based mobile Internet access.  That's a lot to look forward to, but there's also promise and potential for a whole lot more.

In fact, many new and different mobile WiMAX devices are possible, including eReaders, smart meters, multi-user portable game players, video cameras and surveillance, and health monitoring instruments.  If the components are low cost, highly integrated functionality, low power consumption and small size, then the ingredients for new such new devices are in place. 

However, the key to realizing a wide variety of devices will be a combination of several factors that are predominantly controlled by the network operator.  Those include WiMAX coverage, pricing plans, and business models network operators adopt with content providers.  For example, the mobile/ portable subscriber would like wide coverage, excellent availability, good performance, but only one bill from the network provider-independent of the number of wireless devices owned which use the WiMAX network.  (See Reference 3.  for more details on possible devices for mobile broadband networks.)


Sequans Silicon Solution for Mobile WiMAX CPE and Devices

Taking advantage of Moore's Law (to realize ever higher silicon functional density), in house RF and mixed signal expertise, and the ever- popular ARM core, Sequans has pulled off a tri-fecta with its latest generation of WiMAX silicon. 

The SQN 1220 integrates a baseband (IEEE 802.16e-2005 MAC and PHY) element, tri-band RF (2.3 - 2.4 GHz, 2.5 - 2.7 GHz, 3.3 - 3.8 GHz) module, and an (ARM based) applications processor- all on a single silicon die.  To an old time data communications chip architect and microprocessor applications engineer (like this author), it's an amazing feat! The mixed signal processing (digital and analog) capability is especially impressive.  Additionally, the SQN1220 implements dual transmit channels, which enable uplink MIMO (as specified in Release 1.5 of the WiMAX Forum system profile).  As pointed out in our first Sequans article (see Reference 1.) uplink MIMO results in significantly increased link budget, improved cell coverage, lower overall power consumption, and lower system cost.



The on-chip applications processor could be used for a variety of tasks, including: SIP for VoIP, IMS and FMC functions, IP routing over the WiMAX access network, residential gateway, diagnostics and test functions, smart meter or instrument reading and control, user interface for a LCD screen and/or keyboard, device commands and status indicators.  Ultimately, it will be left to the ingenuity of the device maker to specify the software functions to be implemented on the on-chip processor.

The SQN1210 is a single die, baseband - RF combo chip without the applications processor.  It is designed for the smallest of mobile devices, such as mobile handsets, smart phones, MIDs, and netbooks.  It may be used with notebook PCs through USB dongles or ExpressCards, or directly embedded in PCI Express MiniCards or Half MiniCards.  Zyxel has announced their use of the SQN1210 in a USB dongle- the ZyXEL MAX-507 USB.



Care has been taken to reduce power consumption, which is a critical factor for all mobile devices.  The SQN1200 family employs the state-of-the-art power reduction techniques to extend battery life.  Smart software algorithms optimize resource management for additional power reduction improvements.  The SQN1220 and SQN1210 consume less than 350 mW of power with fully loaded MIMO traffic and less than 0.5 mW in standby.

Sequans' S3MAX software package includes the complete IEEE 802.16e-2005 software stack and all drivers and host applications required for a WiMAX end system.  Host software includes drivers for all major operating systems (Windows XP, Vista, Windows CE, MAC OS, and Linux), Sequans' own connection manager, a supplicant engine for EAP authentication, a fully-fledged OMA-DM client, and a field diagnostic tool.  S3MAX also provides a full simulation and verification environment, which can be easily customized to address specific device maker needs.

Sequans has sampled the SQN1210 and SQN1220 chips to more than a dozen device manufacturers who are currently developing next-generation products using that silicon.  A wide variety of WiMAX products are now in design: USB dongles, embedded modules for notebooks/netbooks/CE devices, multimode cellular handsets, portable hotspots, and WiMAX CPE.  Let's now examine the functionality of a few of those new products.

In addition to the customers who are actively developing new products, there is another group of manufacturers evaluating the SQN1200 family chips.  This number is more than a dozen and is increasing over time.  Sequans expects that many of these will convert to the 'active development' category above once they recognize the value of the integration we've done, the performance, the small footprint, the low power consumption, the IOT maturity, other features and benefits. 

In 2010, Sequans expects its silicon to be inside new WiMAX CPE and mobile devices, to be sold by many different WiMAX network operators.  Those operators include: UQ Communications (Japan), Packet 1 (Malaysia), Yota and Scartel (Russia), Axtel (Mexico), Unwire (Australia), Korea Telecom (South Korea), Globe (Phillipines), Clearwire and its MVNO partner companies (e.g.  Sprint, Comcast, and TWC).

Let's look at a few of the new WiMAX end point products expected next year.

Multi-function WiMAX CPE

Consider that most WiMAX deployments today are for fixed broadband access- effectively a DSL or cable modem replacement.  The SQN 1220 can be exploited in WiMAX CPE for that application, which includes VoIP as well as a WiMAX modem with a USB or Ethernet interface to a desktop or notebook PC.  Up until now, VoIP over WiMAX required multiple boxes and cables.  With VoIP integrated into WiMAX CPE there is only one box you plug your phone and PC into. 

Craig Miller, Sequans Business Development and Marketing Manager, says that there are "about a half dozen" customers working on this type of WiMAX CPE for 2010 commercial availability.  Some of those products are currently being tested in certification labs at the WiMAX Forum and network operators, according to Mr.  Miller.  Sequans says their SQN1220 solution enables the WiMAX industry's lowest cost WiMAX CPE.

Sequans has partnered with Hellosoft to provide a very compact and cost effective VOIP/ WiMAX capability for CPE.  They have integrated the Hellosoft's VOIP media engine into the SQN1220.  According to Craig Miller, " It's a proven set of high quality voice codecs available to customers developing VoIP CPE, and it is available as part of our development license - customers do not need to negotiate a separate license with Hellosoft.  Our integration effort means that customers have less software integration and test effort to perform on their own.  This should reduce their time to market and their development costs.  And, since these codecs execute on the embedded application processor in the SQN1220, the VoIP solution is extremely low cost."

Sequans CEO Georges Karam: "With Hellosoft's VOIP media engine solution, we are reducing complexity for our customers by offering a pre-integrated, pre-validated VoIP and Mobile WiMAX total solution.  Adding Hellosoft's widely accepted and high quality voice capability to our already highly integrated chip underscores our commitment to providing the highest performance at the lowest cost, and to moving WiMAX toward mass market acceptance."

Opinion:  While Vonage offers a VoIP service over any broadband connection, it would be more attractive if the WiMAX network operator offered VoIP over (fixed) WiMAX service.  We understand that Clearwire offers such a VoIP over (fixed) WiMAX service in all of the nation-wide markets that they are deploying.  We believe that VoIP will have huge growth outside the U.S.  and that VoIP over WiMAX will be a very viable service if the CPE and the tariff are reasonably priced.

4G Personal WiFi Hot Spots

Best exemplified by Clearwire's Clearspot (made by Cradle Point), a 4G personal hot spot is a battery powered WiFi AP/Router that fits in a briefcase.  You can connect your notebook PC, iPOD touch, iPhone (or other WiFi equipped smart phone), and other WiFi enabled gadgets to this portable hot spot, as long as they are within 15 to 20 meters away.

Cisco has announced its intention to make such a unit this year.  Sprint sells a MiFi hot spot that connects to its 3G- EVDO based network.

Currently, 4G personal hotspots use a USB connection to connect to an external WiMAX modem (AKA as a USB dongle or WiMAX dongle).  But in 2010 we expect to see the WiMAX modem functionality integrated into the hotspot.  Mr.  Miller states, "Sequans has several customers developing integrated WiFi/WiMAX portable hot spots." We think this is a great idea - for both portable and in-home use.

Smart Phones with embedded WiMAX

To date, the only commercially available WiMAX mobile phone we are aware of is an HTC device sold by Yota in Russia.  That device uses an earlier generation of Sequans silicon (the SQN 1130).  While no other WiMAX equipped smart phones have been announced, we believe that HTC and Samsung will introduce such devices in 2010.  Sequans says that they have a couple of customers developing smart phones with their new generation of WiMAX chips.  Obviously, they can't disclose names or timeframes.

Opinion: T his author independently concludes that the HTC phone will use the SQN 1210.  We have tried to confirm this with HTC but were told that they don't comment on unannounced products.  We think the Sprint tri-mode phone scheduled for next year will be from Samsung, as that company already has produced the Mondi MID that works on CLEAR.  Furthermore, we think that the mobile WiMAX enabled phones will use either GSM or CDMA for voice, rather than VoIP over WiMAX.  This is because there are several problems with mobile VoIP, including QOS guarantees, session continuity and handover/ inter-working with cellular voice and the PSTN (or other TDM based voice networks). 

Columbia University Professor Henning Schulzrinne says,"Session continuity between WiFi and 3G doesn't work, in general.  I think the WiMAX problem is made worse by the fact that initial deployments are going to be pretty spotty, so vertical hand-off becomes more important than for traditional cellular voice."

Summary

Sequans believes they're leading the WiMAX industry in the direction of 'mass market' status, in the same way as WiFi ramped up when highly integrated components made low cost devices and embedded interfaces ubiquitous.  The SQN1200 family is so highly integrated that it has the potential to remove cost as a barrier to growth and adoption by device manufacturers.  This capability is perfectly timed now that WiMAX network operators are finally showing signs of the kind of broad coverage that could represent a very significant market opportunity for the device manufacturers.  Sequans' Craig Miller, "We believe that mass market WiMAX can be a real phenomenon now - all the pieces are in place." And we can't disagree. 

In our opinion, Sequans is providing very valuable silicon and software technology to the rest of the WiMAX ecosystem.  It is now up to the network operators and device makers to exploit that technology to build a healthy business model and move mobile WiMAX forward toward mass-market status.

__________

References

1.  Sequans Leads with Broad WiMAX Portfolio & Performance Advantages

2.  WiMAX Chip Companies Ponder the Future of 4G Networks

3.  Wireless Carriers Look Beyond Phones For Growth (WSJ on-line subscription required)



 

Wednesday, November 11, 2009 in Equipment  | Permalink |  Comments (11)

Tellabs Makes Play for IP Core with WiChorus Acquistion

To accelerate its transition from an optical transport vendor to an Internet Protocol network equipment company, Tellabs is acquiring mobile packet core maker WiChorus for $165 million in net cash.

Tellabs counts 43 of the top 50 service providers as customers, with their IP mobile backhaul products deployed by 120 network operators.  The acquisition extends Tellabs wireless backhaul products to a fast growing adjacent market- gateways for mobile IP traffic (such as the ASN Gateway for mobile WiMAX).  That market is expected to reach $2.6B in 2013, sporting a better than 22% compound annual growth rate.  The transaction is expected to close no later than February 2010.

"We are very excited about this acquisition and believe that, together (the combined company), will revolutionize the mobile Internet," said Tellabs Marketing Communications Manager Ariana Nikitas.  She further stated the acquisition would extend Tellabs mobile backhaul product portfolio (see CHART below) to a fast growing adjacent market.  "The resulting products will enable service providers to deliver richer experiences to mobile end users," she said.

Tellabs has a large portfolio of transport and network management products for wireless backhaul.  These include the following:

Analysis:

Tellabs recognizes the mobile Internet is taking off and WiChorus has a product their service provider customers need to take advantage of this opportunity.  Sales of smartphones are growing more than 30% a year while netbook sales have been very strong.  People are spending more time surfing the Internet while on the move.  As a result, Tellabs' mobile customers expect mobile data traffic to grow 30% to 50% a year for the foreseeable future.  AT&T recently indicated its mobile traffic has quadrupled over the past year.

Such high growth demands scalable, next-generation network architectures to deliver 3G and 4G multi-media and video services.  This acquisition will enable the combined company to help facilitate delivery of those services, while providing richer experiences to mobile Internet users.  It will enable Tellabs to compete with Ericsson, Alcatel-Lucent, and Cisco (which recently announced its acquisition of Starent Networks) in the 4G/3G mobile packet core market.

Since Tellabs (and many other companies) haven't been spending much money on R&D, they were forced to make this acquisition to remain competitive in the mobile backhaul market.  Independent of that, Tellabs has a very high opinion of WiChorus' mobility management and routing technology.

On a conference call Thursday, Tellabs CEO Robert W.  Pullen said the Wichorus platform was a "purpose- built 4G (WiMAX, LTE) architecture that is backward compatible with 3G (GGSN, HSPA, HSPA+)." As a result, it can be sold to WiMAX operators now and 3G or LTE operators in the future.  Tellabs stated there were two potential service provider customer types for the WiChorus platform:

- Those that are optimizing their 3G mobile networks and evolving to 4G (LTE).
- Those that have leapfrogged 3G to deploy 4G (Mobile WiMAX and LTE).

Wichorus' "best in class" deep packet inspection capability and performance was particularly attractive to Tellabs.  It was said to produce much less throughput degradation than competitor mobile packet core products.  Tellabs claims that the WiChorus 4G packet core product offers eight times more throughput than competitive offerings. 

The Wichorus SmartCore™ platform was said to address the unique requirements of the mobile Internet:

- Includes a full range of mobile IP products (from low entry price to highly scalable) for applications including GGSN, LTE and WiMax, plus new application enablement with superior DPI capability. 

- Offers 8 times more throughput, 4 times more simultaneous Internet connections and active users, compared with competitive platforms in gateway applications.

- Uniquely combines world-class application analytics with a mobile core gateway for improved traffic engineering and network optimization. 

- Enables customers to analyze and monetize more than 400 of the top mobile Internet applications. 

- Makes mobile networks content-aware and context-aware, with personalized application-awareness. 

- Outperforms other platforms in delivering mobile Internet capacity.  For example, competitors' capacity significantly degrades (as much as 30% to 50%) during deep-packet inspection (DPI)

- Delivers new and differentiated applications such as Internet offload and distributed LTE gateway.  The SmartCore™ platform can offload as much as 70% of traffic at the network edge, increasing core network efficiency and improving user experiences.  As a result, customers can save as much as 50% in capital expenses, compared with the present method of operation. 

The WiChorus ASN Gateway is being sold to Clearwire and trialed by other mobile WiMAX network providers.  Tellabs CEO Pullen said that the company's next product will be for "business services delivery" using femtocells and picocells. 

When asked to comment on future product plans, Ms.  Nikitas declined, stating that the acquisition had not yet taken place and could not comment till the merger had actually been consummated.

Opinion:

We think this is a very good move for both companies and we predict more acquisitions and consolidation in the network equipment market.

Reference:
http://www.tellabs.com/news/2009/index.cfm/nr/79.cfm

 

Friday, October 23, 2009 in Business  | Permalink |  Comments (11)

Mobile WiMAX at 3.5GHz Starting to Take Off

European operators are leveraging improvements in technology and 3.5GHz spectrum to offer true mobile WiMAX networks. New operators such as Imagine Communications in Ireland begin the launch of nation-wide coverage.

In many countries, there is an abundance of relatively inexpensive spectrum available at 3.5GHz and slightly higher frequencies.  This spectrum has traditionally been used for fixed BWA (broadband wireless access) with proprietary technologies such as Motorola Canopy, as well as IEEE 802.16d fixed WiMAX. 

While this technology works well for fixed access, it's often been a real challenge to use these frequencies for mobility due to its propagation characteristics and to Doppler shifts (or more precisely the Doppler Effect), which is more pronounced at higher frequencies above 3GHz.  From a technology perspective, these shifts in frequency and wavelength result from a source moving with respect to the medium, a receiver moving with respect to the medium, or even a moving medium.  As modulated symbols are transmitted, they interfere with one another, creating a phenomenon known as Inter Symbol Interference (ISI).  ISI complicates symbol detection at the receiver, often producing an unacceptably high bit error rate.

Consequently, there has been a perception that 3.5GHz spectrum should not be used for mobility.  That thinking is now changing with the roll outs of several 3.5GHz mobile WiMAX networks in Europe.  And if 3.5GHz can be effectively used to deploy IEEE 802.16e mobile WiMAX networks, then operators could provide both fixed/nomadic as well as mobile broadband access to subscribers at a lower cost than at 2.5 GHz and lower frequencies. 

Indeed, there have been several deployments and recent announcements of operators using 3.5GHz for IEEE 802.16e based WiMAX networks in Europe:

- Worldmax based in Amsterdam is using Beceem's silicon and Motorola equipment to deploy a nationwide mobile WiMAX network in the Netherlands at 3.5GHz .  The operators's service is currently deployed as a city-wide hot zone in Amsterdam and early results have been quite encouraging. 

- Imagine Communication Group is deploying a nationwide mobile WiMAX network in Ireland at 3.5GHz.  The network will use Motorola's end-to-end WiMAX solution to deliver voice and high speed data services to residential and small to medium-sized enterprise customers as well as offering mobility in city centers, using USB dongles.  More on Imagine's WiMAX roll out later in this article.

- Clearwire announced that it would deploy 3.5GHz mobile WiMAX in Malaga and Seville, Spain next year, using RAN equipment from Alvarion and ZTE.  "We intend to prove that WiMAX can work not only at 2.5GHz, but also at 3.5GHz, which is the spectrum we have in Spain," Barry West, president of Clearwire International, said during a press conference at the ITU Telecom World 2009 show in Geneva.

- UK telecom regulator Ofcom has changed Freedom4's spectrum license conditions, allowing the operator to offer mobile WiMAX services across the U.K.  using the spectrum it already owns.  (Note: Freedom4 is a joint venture between Daisy Group and Intel Capital.) Freedom4 owns a broadband wireless spectrum license consisting of two blocks of 84 MHz in the frequency band 3.6-4.2GHz.  Ofcom's move will enable Freedom4 to launch mobile WiMAX services, rather than just fixed wireless access.  As a result, the company will be able to directly compete with the UK's five mobile network operators.  However, Freedom4 has not disclosed any deployment time frames or other details of its planned mobile WiMAX network. 


Imagine Communication's WiMAX Network

According to a fact sheet provided by Imagine Communications Group, Ireland's broadband infrastructure is struggling to keep up with the demands of its modern economy.  For broadband quality, Ireland ranks in 37th place out of 66 countries and behind countries such as Estonia, Greece, Poland, and Turkey.  On the major cities ranking list, Dublin is ranked in 94rth place behind locations such as Krakow, Ankara, Naples, Nanjing, and Istanbul.  One out of three fixed lines in Ireland cannot get broadband and four out of 10 lines can get a maximum of only 1Mbps.

In an attempt to greatly improve Ireland's broadband infrastructure, Imagine recently announced it will invest €100 million in upgrading to mobile WiMAX technology, a move that could result in the creation of up to 200 new jobs.  The Imagine WiMAX service is already in operation, with phase one of the rollout covering 250,000 homes in Dublin, Wexford, Sligo, Tralee and Athlone to be completed by mid-November 2009.  Imagine's new network will not be restricted to high-population areas, but will also be rolled out to smaller towns and rural communities at a rate of 15 new WiMAX areas per month.  Imagine's CEO and founder Sean Bolger stated that Imagine plans to cover 90% of the country by 2012 with WiMAX services. 

"Customers across Ireland will soon experience a leap forward in terms of broadband access and speeds.  Motorola's globally renowned WiMAX solutions are quick to deploy, flexible and scalable and allow us to meet increasing demand for next-generation voice and broadband data services at home, at work and on the move," according to Bolger.


Sean Bolger, Imagine Communications


Bolger further stated that Imagine's WiMAX service will debut at 8Mbps, but is capable today of reaching 17Mbps and higher speeds.  According to the companies website, the pricing for consumers and businesses will be unveiled shortly, but Bolger promises it will come at a lower price than current fixed line broadband services.  Bolger told the Irish Times it will be 50 percent cheaper than comparable Eircom products. 

He pointed out that Ireland has the highest fixed telephone costs in the world and at €25.47 line rental is 70% higher in Ireland than the European average.  Imagine also intends to allow other operators to wholesale its WiMAX service, although he said it had not begun negotiations with anyone.

"4G broadband is not about speed but being more competitive." He went on to say that Ireland has plenty of fiber, "now the problem is connecting to that fiber." Bolger says WiMAX could solve that access problem. 

And Imagine owns lots of spectrum.  The company holds 88MHz of 3.5GHz licensed spectrum in Dublin, Cork, and Waterford, 123MHz in Limerick and 60MHz in the rest of the country.  In those cities, this is more than double the 35MHz held by each of the 3G mobile operators.

Motorola has agreed to provide a portion of the €100 million that Imagine needs to replace its existing wireless nationwide infrastructure with WiMAX.  Motorola will provide the RAN equipment as well as deployment, integration and support services to Imagine.  Motorola's Head of Sales commented, "Today's announcement is very significant for Motorola as we see Ireland as a key strategic market for (mobile) WiMAX due to the digital divide and broadband deficits which causes lower broadband speeds and higher prices than the rest of Europe," he said. 

Intel is partnering with Imagine to supply technology for 3.5GHz mobile WiMAX enabled notebook and netbook PCs.  Mr Jim O'Hara, General Manager of Intel Ireland, said that WiMAX is a game-changing technology.  "Many people in the country are operating on a 1Mbps speed at the moment, even if they think they are paying for higher.  WiMAX is easily achieving 8Mbps, and this will be increased.  Intel is going to provide WiMAX embedded laptops and PCs from early 2010," Mr O'Hara concluded. 

These 3.5GHz mobile WiMAX deployments are great news for the WiMAX industry.  As early indications suggest, these networks should be price competitive with 3G networks while offering better performance and availability.  For true mobility, the key question is when the mobile WiMAX embedded netbooks, notebooks, and hand held devices are available that work at 3.5GHz.  We hope it's early next year.

References:

http://www.wimax.com/commentary/news/wimax_industry_news/october-2009/imagine-launches-global-4g-wimax-network-in-ireland-1014


 

Wednesday, October 21, 2009 in Deployments  | Permalink |  Comments (3)

Cisco Enters Market for IP-based Mobile Infrastructure via Acquisition of Starent Networks

On Tuesday, Cisco announced that it would pay about $2.9 billion for Starent Networks, which makes products that help wireless telecommunications companies ship large volumes of data to phones and computing devices.

For Cisco, the acquisition extends its bet that consumers and workers will keeping pulling down ever larger amounts of data onto smartphones and laptops over wireless networks.   Starent’s hardware and software products make it possible to create and manage high-speed data services, and the company counts carriers like Verizon Wireless, Sprint Nextel, Vodafone Group and China Telecom as customers.

“We have had a huge explosion in data traffic,” said Ned Hooper, Cisco’s chief strategy officer.   “We expect the market for mobile data to double every year through 2013.”

In a most revealing blog on his company's web site, Simon Aspinall, Senior Director of Service Provider Marketing provides motivation for Cisco's acquisition of Starent Networks.   WIth its purchase of Starent, Cisco will enable the sending of IP content wirelessly via carrier networks.

"The next step in the evolution of the Internet is to make it available anywhere and at any time, which requires the convergence of the mobile world and Internet.   The ‘Mobile Internet’ will offer the services and applications from the Internet on-the-move, and on any device.   This market is growing rapidly, with IP-enabled Smartphones like the iPhone and Blackberry, low-cost netbooks, games handsets, digital cameras and other consumer electronics, mobile connected devices are becoming a part of everyday life for millions of people around the world." he says.

Cisco has predicted that almost 64% of the world’s mobile data traffic will be video by 2013, according to the Cisco Visual Networking Index.

Aspinall added, "As a fast-growing provider of multimedia solutions designed to enable mobile operators to deliver Mobile Internet to their subscribers, Starent Networks is a key player in the Mobile Internet transformation.   The company has more than 100 customer deployments in 45 countries worldwide, with many of the world’s most prominent and innovative mobile operators.   We believe that, together, Cisco and Starent Networks bring complementary solutions designed to help accelerate the transition to the rapidly growing Mobile Internet.   We believe the Mobile Internet is a huge transition that is happening very quickly, and we believe this is the right time for Cisco and Starent Networks to combine their strengths to enable operators to launch, deliver and profit from the next wave of mobile multimedia applications and services."

Cisco CEO John Chambers "believes in video, and points to how the early use of the Internet in business systems resulted in faster economic growth in regions where it was used," according to Peter Christy, an analyst at Internet Research Group.   "Now that phenomenon has slowed down, Chambers is interested in networking that facilitates human collaboration."

Starent’s main customer is Verizon Wireless, which accounted for about 70 percent of sales in the second quarter.   Other customers include Vodafone Group Plc and Sprint Nextel Corp., according to Starent’s Web site.   “Starent’s efforts to diversify away from Verizon may have been an uphill battle,” Anil Doradla, an analyst at William Blair & Co.   in Chicago, said today in a note to investors.   “With Cisco’s backing, we believe the company is better positioned to compete for business with Tier-1 mobile operators outside Verizon.”

Yankee Group analyst Zeus Kerravala noted that while Starent makes carrier equipment for a range of wireless protocols, including high-speed WiMax technology, it also makes gear for LTE, the leading competitor to WiMax.   Kerravala said Cisco's interest in Starent is primarily the LTE component, which gives Cisco the ability to broaden its product mix, much as competitors Nokia, Alcatel-Lucent and Huawei Technologies have done.

Opinion:

We believe that the Starent acquisition is to position Cisco to compete in mobile Internet infrastructure-initially with 3G protocols and later with LTE.   We wonder if there is any mobile WiMAX in Cisco's bag of tricks? Yes, we know that Cisco is the "Core IP NGN" vendor to Clearwire and several WiMAX providers, but that has nothing to do with the mobility portion of the WiMAX networks.

 

Wednesday, October 14, 2009 in Business  | Permalink |  Comments (9)

CTIA Wireless IT & E 2009: FCC Plans to Free Spectrum, Remove Barriers

In a keynote address at the CTIA Wireless IT & Entertainment convention in San Diego, FCC Chairman Julius Genachowski outlined steps the agency is taking to provide more spectrum and remove obstacles to help speed the development and expansion of next generation wireless networks. Will such measures be effective?

FCC Chairman's Remarks at CTIA 2009

For several years, Wireless Internet Service Providers (WISPs), rural and independent telcos and MSOs have been urging the FCC and U.S.  government to free up licensed spectrum to enable them to build faster, more robust and reliable wireless access networks.  Both fixed and mobile WiMAX players would be major beneficiaries of this initiative as WiMAX technology would likely be used by network operators to provide much better wireless broadband service than is possible with unlicensed spectrum, which is prone to interference, coverage gaps and other problems. 

The CTIA - The Wireless Association® ("CTIA") has recently petitioned the FCC to reallocate 800 MHz of spectrum for wireless broadband providers by 2015 (see next section of this article).  At his October 7th CTIA Conference keynote address, FCC Chairman Julius Genachowski made reference to that petition by saying that a lack of licensed spectrum is "a looming crisis" as U.S.  consumers increasingly rely on mobile devices such as smart phones, netbooks, eReaders, etc. that require heavy wireless data usage. 

In his address, Genachowski said that the FCC would examine how to reallocate spectrum for wireless Internet services and look towards ways to promote secondary markets for airwaves, giving companies that hold spectrum licenses the right to lease those licenses to others.  "No sector of the communications industry holds greater potential to enhance America's economic competitiveness, spur job creation, and improve the quality of our lives," Genachowski said.  "My goals with regard to mobile are the same that define and drive all our work: fostering innovation and investment, promoting competition, empowering and protecting consumers, all in an effort to help ensure the U.S.  has a world-leading communications infrastructure for the 21st century.  As this audience knows, it takes years to reallocate spectrum and put it to use.  And there are no easy pickings on the spectrum chart."

Genachowski went on to say that the FCC would also try to clear obstacles for wireless network operators trying to install new 4G networks, including speeding up approvals for new cellphone tower construction, which often are met with local community resistance.  In this regard, the FCC will propose a federal "shot-clock" on tower-siting, while still being sensitive to local jurisdictions.  The siting of towers has long been an obstacle for wireless carriers and tower companies as subscribers embrace mobile services, but city and local governments often don't want the accompanying infrastructure needed for those services.  Genachowski said he understands that Internet providers and wireless network operators need to manage their networks.  "We recognize there are differences between wired and wireline network technologies," said Genachowski.  "They are different networks and because they are different, I have said the rules that are adopted need to allow for reasonable network management.  But we need to have clear rules of the road for everyone regardless of how they access the Internet."

In a press release issued shortly after Genachowski made his keynote remarks, AT&T Wireless Division CEO Ralph de la Vega called for a fact-based discussion with the FCC.  "Before we begin 'fixing' what isn't broken, we need to be thoughtful about the consequences," said de la Vega. 

In reaction to the Commissioner's speech, Sprint issued a press release that supports Mr.  Genachowski's recognition of the importance of mobile broadband networks.  "Sprint Nextel shares with FCC Chairman Julius Genachowski the view that American business and consumers benefit from the deployment of 4G mobile broadband networks.  At Sprint, we are proud to be the first and only nationwide wireless carrier to offer 4G (i.e.  mobile WiMAX) in the United States.  For Sprint customers, 4G isn't the future, 4G is here now.  Sprint 4G is available in 16 markets today and we expect to offer Sprint 4G service to 120 million people in 80 markets by the end of 2010."

"Sprint is pleased that the Chairman recognized that there are real and relevant differences between operating wired and wireless networks.  Sprint wants customers to be able to access the applications and the Internet sites they want, when they want.  We look forward to working with Chairman Genachowski and the FCC as they create policies that meet the expectations of consumers, continue innovation in device development, and preserve the ability of carriers to manage networks in a reasonable and responsible manner."


The CTIA Filing- A Request for 800 MHz of Additional Spectrum over Six Years

As the FCC moves forward with the development of a National Broadband Plan, the CTIA filing urged the FCC to "commit to identifying and allocating a significant amount of spectrum - with a goal of at least 800 MHz - for licensed commercial wireless services within the next six years.  While it is impossible to quantify precisely what amount of additional spectrum would be "future proof," such an allocation would be an important step towards meeting rapidly accelerating demand and maintaining U.S.  leadership in the global mobile broadband marketplace."

Recognizing the long lead times necessary to achieve such major spectrum allocations, CTIA urged the FCC to begin immediately.  They also requested policymakers work to meet short-term needs by pairing and allocating readily-available spectrum in the 1755-1780 MHz and 2155-2180 MHz bands for licensed commercial wireless use as quickly as possible.

"With this filing, CTIA provides further evidence that identifying and allocating significant amounts of additional spectrum for licensed commercial wireless services is imperative if U.S.  providers are to continue to lead the wireless world by expanding wireless networks and services to meet rapidly expanding consumer demand."

CTIA highlighted the following critical points for assessing U.S.  commercial wireless spectrum needs:

-The ITU has estimated that commercial wireless will need an allocation of 1,300 MHz by 2015 - meaning an additional 800 MHz of spectrum in the U.S.  - in order to meet surging demand of mobile broadband services.

-56% of Americans have accessed the Internet by wireless means.
-Mobile wireless broadband growth continues to outpace every other broadband platform, with net additions greater than those of DSL and cable modem combined.

-Pew Research estimates that, by 2020, mobile devices will be the primary Internet devices for most people in the world.

-Bandwidth-intensive applications driving mass-market adoption of mobile broadband include highly sought after consumer and business applications such as mobile video, social networking, enterprise productivity, user-generated content,
instant messaging, location-based services, and Web 2.0 applications.

-Watching a YouTube video consumes 100 times the bandwidth of a voice call.

-Estimates place the mobile data traffic footprint of a single mobile subscriber in 2015 at 450 times what it was in 2005.

-The Rysavy paper [1] concludes that "several users within the same cell sector engaging simultaneously in high throughput applications (e.g., video streamlining) can quickly strain the network impacting the user experience for every consumer
accessing the network, even if they are not themselves engaging in bandwidth intensive activities."

-The Rysavy paper also finds that "it is unlikely that operators will be able to deliver satisfactory service in the future at these high traffic volumes using existing spectrum."

-Our global competitors have launched commercial wireless spectrum deployment plans that outstrip U.S.  resources literally by hundreds of MHz.


So what does all this mean?

Essentially CTIA is asking the FCC to work with the Federal government to identify and allocate up to 800 MHz of additional spectrum over the next six years.  They have also have requested policymakers to meet short-term spectrum needs by pairing and allocating readily available spectrum.  Wireless industry lobbyists have spent months trying to persuade congress to pass legislation that would require the government to do an inventory of the U.S.'s airwaves and how they are being used.  The U.S.  government controls much of the available airwaves, which are set aside for military and other official uses.  If the government was to find that chunks of spectrum it owns is not being used efficiently, that spectrum could be freed up and auctioned off to wireless network operators.

Immediately after CTIA's filing, President and CEO Steve Largent said: "As the (FCC) Chairman and other FCC Commissioners understand, spectrum is our industry's backbone and is what encourages innovation and competition.  In order to facilitate the 'virtuous cycle' of the industry, more spectrum must be made available.  As spectrum is brought to market, the virtuous cycle begins, as networks are upgraded to add capacity and greater capabilities, handsets are then developed to take advantage of next generation networks, application and content developers then create new content to take advantage of new handset capabilities, and ultimately, consumers demand more.  It's a cycle that never ends as long as spectrum is available."

"The (wireless) industry needs access to more spectrum so we can continue to meet the growing consumer demand - whether it's for personal reasons such as mHealth or for environmental reasons such as smart grids.  Other countries around the world have recognized the need to facilitate this virtuous cycle and have identified hundreds of megahertz of spectrum to reallocate for licensed commercial use."


Qualcomm: More Wireless Spectrum is Urgently Needed

On October 8th, Qualcomm's father and son executives Irwin & Paul Jacobs sent a clear message that more wireless spectrum is urgently needed to sustain current trends in wireless data traffic.  Like AT&T and other incumbent wireless carriers, they warned against strict wireless net neutrality regulation that could restrict operators' ability to manage their networks.

Paul Jacobs, Qualcomm's current CEO, said that engineers are at their limit in terms of squeezing out data transfer efficiencies within the current frequency bands.  "We've done what we can in the lab to make mobile devices more efficient," he said.  "We will have to use different tricks now to get to the next level." Paul said that wireless operators, when building the next generation of 4G wireless networks (e.g.  LTE which Qualcomm supports), will have to build more dense networks with towers spaced closer together.  The younger Jacobs said that wireless operators also need to add more capacity to their backhaul networks.  The problem today is that many connections from the cell towers to the backbone don't have enough capacity to support the traffic coming from within the cell sites.  As more cell sites are added and bandwidth per cell site increases, this problem will only get worse.  Continuing Paul said: "With data there are large peak to average ratios, Data traffic is very bursty, which means you need more head room in the backhaul network."

Qualcomm founder and Chariman Irwin Jacobs said that managing the interference among multiple radios will be a challenge, but that engineers will be able respond with a solution.  He suggested using femto cells, which create personal cell sites to propagate cellular phone signals in homes or offices.

Paul Jacobs said that he thinks Mr.  Genachowski understands the wireless industry's challenges.  But he also went on to say that other regulators and politicians may need more of an education.  "During the Internet bubble there was all kind of funding for dark fiber," he said.  "And I think people thought carrying those bits was free.  But it's not.  It's expensive.  And I think the regulators may not realize how expensive it could get."

That doesn't mean eliminate licensing or exclusive licenses.  But it does mean that "expand capacity" can no longer be equivalent to "find more spectrum."


Alternative Approaches:

At the CTIA conference, Ravi Potharlanka, COO of wireless backhaul provider FiberTower, said he was looking to get more spectrum from TV broadcasters.  He recommends setting aside up to six TV channels in rural areas for wireless use, with enough separation from broadcasters to eliminate "practically any possibility" of interference.

Speaking on a CTIA panel titled "Facilitating U.S.  Wireless Leadership" Gig Sohn, President of Public Knowledge, said the FCC should follow through with figuring out whether the unlicensed devices it has already approved in the TV band be allowed to boost power in rural areas.  Furthermore, she said that it would be impossible to wrest control over spectrum held by incumbents with "most of the spectrum that would have value to industry." But she wasn't talking about TV broadcasters.  In fact, they have already given up a quarter of their spectrum in the DTV switch, and share what they have with unlicensed microphones and, more recently, lower powered wireless devices.

Sohn went on to say that the groups not willing to share spectrum are the Defense Department and Federal Aviation Administration.  "We believe that it will be impossible to convince government to abandon the spectrum it controls, and that the better course is for the FCC, working with the National Telecommunications and Information Administration, to promote shared use of federally-controlled spectrum."


Prescription for Universal Broadband Access in the US:

In an earlier interview, SCU Law Professor Allen Hammond and founding director of the Broadband Institute of California, detailed several key recommendations for making broadband access pervasive and affordable to all living in the U.S.  These include:

-Federal government should release the White Space spectrum (the unused portions of the new digital TV frequency bands- up to 700 MHz) for unlicensed Broadband Wireless Access (BWA).  The spectrum released should have good signal propagation characteristics in order to penetrate trees and buildings in the signal path.  The cost to procure that spectrum needs to be low or zero to encourage smaller network providers.  Regulatory barriers should be removed from the process of operating and maintaining such BWA networks. 

-Other spectrum suitable for BWA should be made available by the federal government to instigate the build-out of broadband wireless networks.  Public-private partnerships should be encouraged to build such networks.  Regulatory barriers should be relaxed. 

-A national "web of wireless networks" should be created that can be used in responding to emergencies such as earthquakes, fires, hurricanes, floods, tornados, national security threats, etc.  The federal government should encourage inter-connection and interoperability of the multiple heterogeneous municipal wireless networks that already exist.  By interconnecting such networks and developing compatible network equipment, the U.S.  can automate and co-ordinate the response to many different types of emergencies and security threats.  After the Hurricane Katrina failures, most of us can appreciate the necessity of a quick, automated response to emergencies, where information is transmitted and shared over high-speed broadband wireless networks.  Such a national network would be most valuable to the Dept of Homeland Security.

- The National Broadband Plan should not prohibit municipal and private business joint ventures to build broadband networks.  Rather, they should be encouraged.  In such partnerships, the city becomes the anchor tenant while a private carrier builds out the network.  There should be a significant number of city government entities that use the network to establish a critical mass of subscribers and traffic.  In the past, large incumbent telcos (e.g.  Verizon) argued that building such a public- private network would discriminate against them.  Prof.  Hammond believes that the FCC and federal government should demand actual proof of such discrimination, rather than tacitly accept the assumptions of the incumbent network provider.  Regulatory barriers should be dismantled for broadband network build-outs.  As a case in point, Allen notes that MSO's and incumbent telcos lobbied their opposition against municipal wireless networks to state legislatures.  As a result, at least 16 states prohibited or severely restricted municipalities from building wireless networks.

-Stipulate funding mechanisms (beyond the Broadband Stimulus bill), which are needed for broadband network construction, operation, and maintenance as well as subsidies to low income residents. 

_____________

Footnote:

[1.] Mobile Broadband Spectrum Demand, Rysavy Research, Dec.  2008 (http://www.rysavy.com/aboutus.html)

 

Friday, October 09, 2009 in Business  | Permalink |  Comments (9)

Intel Seeks Mobile Computing Leadership, Reaffirms WiMAX Commitment

Intel outlines its mobile computing strategy, elaborates on its roadmap for mobile platforms and unveils its new "Intel Atom Developer Program" at the Intel Developer Forum (IDF) last week in San Francisco, CA.

Introduction

For those interested in mobile computing and mobile WiMAX, there were several important take-aways from last week's Intel Developer Forum (IDF) in San Francisco, CA.  Most importantly, Intel made it clear that they intend to dominate the mobile computing silicon and software space.  They will face stiff competition from Qualcomm, which is already moving their technology into smart phones, eBook readers, Mobile Internet Devices, and other hand held devices. 

In this article we detail Intel's newly announced mobile computing plans and its reaffirmation of its commitment to mobile WiMAX.  We will examine the following:

- Roadmap for Intel's Atom processor, which is targeted at netbooks, MIDs, and other hand held mobile computing devices.

- Establishment of the "Intel Atom Developer Program."

- A new version of Moblin - Intel's Linux-based operating system intended for netbooks and MIDs. 

- Reaffirmation of Intel's WiMax commitment via a short progress report and Clearwire demonstration.

More information on this year's Intel Developer Forum can be found here.


IDF Highlights:


1.  Intel's Atom processor (now using the Menlow platform) is currently sold into netbooks, but not hand held devices where power consumption is a huge issue.  Intel plans to integrate more functionality into Atom, reduce power consumption, and shrink the die sizes by half. 

Editors Note:  Atom and other "System- on a -Chip (SoC)" platforms have their own road map schedule that is different from Intel's PC client and server products, which operate on Intel's famous "tick-tock " road map schema.  In particular, the Atom/SoC line will trail the leading PC and server products by about one semiconductor process generation, or "tick." Major architecture upgrades -- or "tocks" -- also will be different from the PC client and server road map.

The new Moorestown platform -to be available in mid 2010- shrinks and integrates more functions into fewer chips so that it can be embedded into mobile Internet devices (MIDs) and larger smart phones.  It also adds hyper-threading to Atom, boosting performance in threaded apps.  Built on a 45nm process, Moorestown will greatly reduce power consumption (especially idle power) compared to Menlow.  Citing a combination of architectural, design and process enhancements, Intel VP David Perlmutter discussed some of the innovative techniques that Intel is implementing in Moorestown.  These include "Distributed Power Gating," for improved performance and major reductions in power and thermal envelope.

Mr.  Perlmutter also highlighted Intel's next generation of mobile processors, codenamed "Arrandale," which brings the Nehalem micro-architecture to mainstream laptops.  These chips will integrate the dual-core CPU and graphics in the package and incorporate the 32nm manufacturing process and second-generation high-k metal gate transistors for increased performance and power efficiency for mainstream mobile PCs.  This integration of platform components will continue into the future with a fully monolithic processor on 32nm, codenamed "Sandy Bridge."

These technologies help to achieve up to a 50x improvement in platform idle power reduction compared to Intel's first generation "Menlow" platform.  The reductions are enabling Intel to establish new thresholds in ultra low power while making it possible to run the full Internet and media-rich applications in handheld devices, according to Perlmutter.

In his opening day keynote speech, CEO Paul Otellini explained, "At Intel, Moore's Law is alive and thriving.  We've begun production of the world's first 32nm microprocessor, which is also the first high-performance processor to integrate graphics with the CPU.  At the same time, we're already moving ahead with development of our 22nm manufacturing technology and have built working chips that will pave the way for production of still more powerful and more capable processors."

Editors Note:  It wasn't too long ago that 90nm processors were the norm, and 65nm processors were cutting edge. 

For sure, Intel is serious about pushing its Atom-based SoC platforms into an increasing number of product categories.  CEO Otellini even predicted "a future where Intel ships more SoC cores than standard PC cores."


2.  The Intel Atom Developer Program was unveiled during a keynote speech by Renee James, corporate vice president and general manager of Intel's Software and Services Group.  This effort encourages independent software vendors and developers to create mobile applications.  Intel is partnering with notebook and netbook manufacturers, including Acer and ASUS, to create multiple application stores where applications and application building blocks for Intel-based netbooks and handhelds will be sold. 

"The Intel Atom Developer Program will drive new innovative applications for consumers and new revenue streams for software developers," said James.  "The new program facilitates the creation of applications that consumers can use with confidence knowing they were optimized and validated for Intel Atom processor-based devices.  We want to fuel the growth of Intel Atom-based products designed for the mobile lifestyle," Continuing, he stated, "The netbook has become one of the most popular consumer devices in the market today, but its true potential has been limited by applications that are not optimized for its mobility and smaller screen size.  The Intel Atom Developer Program provides a great opportunity for developers to create useful and inventive applications that will unlock a netbook's potential while opening a new sales and distribution channel."

To provide the broadest choice of applications across platforms, the Intel Atom Developer Program will support multiple operating systems and run-time environments.  Run-times enable developers to use a single code base to support multiple device platforms and avoid extensive reprogramming, thereby reducing development costs and time-to-market.  Run-times such as Microsoft Silverlight allow developers to access multiple classes of customers and deliver rich applications for Windows and Moblin-based environments using a single toolset, Visual Studio and the .NET Framework.  For more information, please visit here.

Intel no doubt wishes to replicate the success of the iPhone App Store by having its OEM vendors create App stores for their Atom-powered devices.  Taking it one step further, Intel introduced its own "App Store" for its Linux-based Moblin operating system (see discussion in 3.  below).  Interested developers can join the program now at this new site.

Intel states, "You create innovative network applications - we take care of the rest." Let's see if this works out well for all concerned.


3.  Intel introduced a new version of Moblin - its Linux-based operating system for netbooks, MIDs and other hand held devices.  Among several new features, Moblin 2.1 supports a new interface appropriate for the screens you see on MIDs and smart phones.  Additionally, Moblin 2.1 builds in capabilities like native touch screen input and gesture support, new user interface features, and support for more hardware drivers.  It also includes incremental upgrades that expand the usability of the OS.

Moblin was originally developed and promoted by Intel as an OS for netbooks.  At IDF, an Intel representative said that with Moblin 2.1, the OS will now come in three versions: for handhelds, netbooks and nettops.  (A nettop is an inexpensive desktop about the size of a hardcover book to which key boards, mice and monitors can be connected.) For more information, please visit here.


4.  Intel is still very committed to mobile WiMax - even as global mobile carriers rush to implement various versions of 3G and look towards LTE in the future.  During his keynote speech, David Perlmutter, executive vice president of Intel's mobility group, stated:

"Another cool factor is connectivity.  This is the era of getting connected.  Intel is delivering the total mobile experience on each device, offering different levels of performance and power in sleek form factors coupled with compatibility, a superior mobile Internet experience and embedded WiMAX wireless broadband.  We're truly taking mobility to the next level of cool."

Perlmutter continued, "A laptop generates more than 15 times the data of a smart phone.  This is generating stress on 3G networks.  Last year we introduced the first embedded WiMax that goes into notebooks.  But having products with WiMax doesn't matter.  It's all about having networks, because if you cannot connect, then it doesn't matter.  And we have networks being built in North America, in Russia, in Japan, and we have networks already there.  We are building with our partners networks in other places like India, Malaysia, Taiwan.  And many, many other places have all sorts of mobile and fixed WiMax all over the globe."

In closing this discussion topic, Perlmutter said, "But I will better have someone that build networks talk about it." Peter Cannistra ¹ , VP of embedded devices at Clearwire was called to the stage.  Mr.  Cannistra talked about his company's "ability to put the mobile Internet in your hand, in a broadband way." In particular, Clearwire customers are realizing average downstream speeds of 3 to 6 M b/sec, bursting up to 10M b/sec, according to Cannistra.  He then demonstrated a videoconference over WiMAX, which showed superior performance compared to an equivalent 3G videoconference.  The comparison was a CLEAR win for mobile WiMAX (pun intended).

Perlmutter's keynote webcast includes this videoconferencing comparison as well as his comments about the Atom processor road map is archived here. 


Comment and Analysis:

There is no doubt that Intel is focusing on mobile computing with its next generation of microprocessors, Atom developer program and new version of Moblin.  Will they be able to compete with future versions of ARM or Qualcomm's Snapdragon with embedded 3G cores?

Up till now, the key issue has been power consumption, with Intel's Menlow platform consuming too much power to be used in handheld devices.  Intel's only hand held design win that we are aware of is with LG - a 3G MID that will use the Moorestown platform.  No deliverable products have been announced for the Intel- Nokia strategic partnership.  We expect Moorestown to be used with embedded 3G SoC capability with 3G cores from Ericsson, Nokia and possibly other vendors.

So we think the key test, will be commercial acceptance of Intel's "Moorestown" platform, scheduled for 2010, in eBook readers, MIDs and smart phones. 

With Qualcomm now making a big mobile computing push with its Snapdragon (ARM based) processor and with their Gobi 2000 platform that supports almost all 3G wireless network interfaces we think they will be a formidable competitor.  At an open house last week, we learned that Qualcomm is producing a wealth of software innovations to advance the always-connected mobile world.  The mobile phone chip powerhouse now has more software engineer's then hardware engineers and is moving ahead full steam with mobile computing research projects.  Qualcomm is mobile OS neutral, but are working with many device vendors using the Android platform.

And with the potential for Microsoft to port Windows Mobile 7 to ARM-based platforms in the future, we believe Intel could potentially devote even more resources to Moblin in order to help deter Microsoft from supporting Windows on ARM as well as Android on Snapdragon.  The Atom Developers program will also need to be strengthened in order to offer a variety of applications that will run on that platform.

_________________

Footnotes:

1 - Cannistra oversees the company's strategy to embed mobile WiMAX functionality into notebooks, netbooks and a wide range of consumer electronic devices.  He is responsible for Clearwire's strategic relationships with Intel, PC OEMs and numerous other companies that aim to make wireless broadband accessible to more people and devices.
 

Monday, September 28, 2009 in Business  | Permalink |  Comments (15)

CLEAR 4G WiMAX Innovation Network Open for Developers in Silicon Valley

Clearwire details logistics, goals and objectives for the "4G" CLEAR Developer's Network in Silicon Valley. Largest 4G WiMAX "sandbox" for developers covers more than 20 square miles in Santa Clara, Mountain View and Palo Alto, California.

Introduction

At the September 17th Telecom Council Carrier Connections conference, Clearwire's Allen Flanagan provided an overview and short video on the company's "4G" mobile WiMAX Innovation Network - a pre-commercial network for mobile WiMAX application development and testing in Silicon Valley.  The network went live only two days prior -on September 15th.  The development focus was said to be "4G" Mobile Applications.  These will be described later in this article.

The CLEAR developer network is a precursor to commercial service planned for the San Francisco Bay Area¹ in 2010.  It will cover more than 20 square miles in Santa Clara, Mountain View and parts of downtown Palo Alto, California.  The current coverage footprint includes the local campuses of Intel and Google, two founding Innovation Network supporters who have also commenced their own internal 4G application development programs.  Cisco's campus will receive coverage in the coming months as the network expands.  Clearwire will update the coverage area maps over time.  Download detailed maps of coverage areas with suggested drive routes and test locations:

- Palo Alto
- Santa Clara
- Mountain View, Los Altos, Sunnyvale

Clearwire plans an aggressive expansion program for CLEAR in the U.S., with a combined coverage area that would service up to 120M people by the end of 2010.

Logistics for the Innovation Network

After reviewing terms and conditions, qualified software application developers that live or work in Silicon Valley can register for free mobile WiMAX service, as long as they buy or own a Clearwire approved terminal (see list below).  Bright House, Comcast, Sprint, and Time Warner Cable will join Cisco, Intel and Google in support of Clearwire's mobile WiMAX application development initiative.  All those companies except Cisco are strategic investors in Clearwire.  The first four plan to resell the CLEAR service, so they have a lot to gain.  All of the participants will aid in promoting the program and have deployed their own respective development resources into the network (e.g.  RAN equipment, IP NGN systems, devices, software, etc). 

Infrastructure providers include: Motorola, Samsung, Huawei (these three vendors supply RAN equipment), and Cisco (Core IP NGN Network). 

Editor's Note:  Allen could not confirm that all of these infrastructure vendors would be involved in the Innovation Network instance.

Components, modules and applications were said to be available from: Intel, Google, Cisco, and Beceem (chip set).  Netbooks with embedded mobile WiMAX interfaces are available from Lenovo, Dell, Toshiba, Samsung, and Fujitsu for use in the program.  The new Samsung Mondi MID handheld is also supported on the Innovation Network. 

Editors Note:  only the mobile devices listed are eligible for use on the CLEAR Innovation network.  Home modems and CLEAR VOIP products and service are not available on the Innovation Network.

To access the network, developers can purchase a Clearwire WiMAX USB modem for $49.99.  Developer-owned, CLEAR "network-ready" mobile WiMAX devices, such as the Samsung Mondi and WiMAX-embedded Intel-based PC's, are also eligible for the program.  To qualify, developers must register for Clearwire's developer program and describe the mobile WiMAX applications/ development ideas they wish to pursue.  Interested developers can sign-up at http://developer.clear.com/innovation.

Developers can expect to realize peak download speeds of up to 10 Mbps on this network, with average download speeds of 3 to 6 Mbps.  In contrast, some of today's 3G wireless networks typically deliver download speeds of between 600 kbps - 1.4 Mbps, according to Clearwire.  Unlike Wi-Fi, mobile WiMAX provides service areas measured in miles, rather than feet.  In addition, the IEEE 802.16e technology used supports full mobility and enables seamless handovers from tower to tower, similar to cellular networks. 


Goals and Applications for the Innovation Network

Flanagan stated the goal of the Innovation Network was "to stimulate software development for Internet applications, broadband media content, Internet and integration services." Allen identified several target applications: streaming media, LBS's, on-line gaming, voice and communications, social media, networking collaboration, optimization and performance tuning.

Clearwire will support developers by providing: CLEAR Platform API and network documentation, Location and Connection APIs along with associated guidelines.  Educational content will be available for mobility, optimization/ tuning, network setup, operations and coverage maps. 

In a short video, Clearwire CTO John Saw articulated the applications the company expected to be "enabled" by the Innovation Network.  These included: mobile video, location awareness, voice, social networking and gaming.

Click here to view Clearwire's CTO Dr.  John Saw discussing the Innovation Network

Q&A

In answer to a question, Mr.  Flanagan echoed a 4G World comment from Clearwire CEO Bill Morrow that both WiMAX Pico cells and femtocells would play an important role in "4G networks" and be critical to their success.  In a follow up email exchange, Allen stated: "In my opinion, it will take some time before they become critical.  Just as it took a lot of years for them to become deployed on previous generation cellular networks."

This author asked if Clearwire might have trouble motivating garage shops and small software developers to participate in the Innovation network program, considering the absence of any smart phones or hand held devices (except the brand new Samsung Mondi).  Allen said that Clearwire was very aware of that issue and together with its investors would be able to recruit a critical mass of developers for the network.

Clearwire will participate as a platinum sponsor of the Sprint Open Developer Conference scheduled for October 26-28 in Santa Clara, CA (this author is registered to attend).  Developers can register to attend the conference at:  http://developer.sprint.com/devcon2009.

Flanagan suggested that developers interested in working on applications for mobile WiMAX might want to attend the conference to learn about the Innovation Network directly from Clearwire executives. 

Editor's Note:  This author expects important new announcements from Sprint regarding handsets and perhaps other devices that will operate on CLEAR.


What the Big Boys Have to Say

"We see tremendous potential for true, mobile broadband to act as the catalyst for new and compelling Internet applications that leverage our 4G bandwidth, free of the confines associated with wired connections," said John Saw, Chief Technology Officer of Clearwire.  "Our goal is to harness the concentration of developer talent in Silicon Valley and accelerate the pace at which these disruptive services are being developed."

"Our long history of innovation with WiMAX, including our development efforts in Portland, OR, allowed Intel to be among the first in the U.S.  to have access to this exciting, next-generation 4G environment," said Sriram Viswanathan, vice president of Intel Capital and general manager of WiMAX Program Office at Intel.  "Along with the WiMAX ecosystem, we look forward to expanding these mobile broadband resources and efforts in an area home to the one of most technology-savvy groups of individuals in the world."

"Mobile broadband is fundamentally changing the way people use the Internet, and 4G networks like Clearwire's have incredible potential," said Larry Alder, mobile product manager at Google.  "We are excited to see how developers will take advantage of this unique asset as Internet users increasingly expect connectivity regardless of their device or location."

"Cisco's Internet Protocol Next-Generation Network infrastructure is playing a key role in the Silicon Valley Innovation Network," said David Goeckeler, general manager of Services and Mobility business unit, Cisco.  "An IP network is the right platform to deliver on the promise of mobility and put 4G services in the hands of some of the most talented and creative developers in the world."
"At Bright House, we're always searching for new and innovative capabilities to bring to our customers," said Leo Cloutier senior vice president, strategy & business development, Bright House Networks.  "We're strongly supportive of this initiative and its ability to leverage the creative talent of developers in the region for the creation of new mobile broadband applications."

"Combining the speeds of broadband with the mobility of wireless communications gives the development community in Silicon Valley a unique opportunity to create differentiated applications," said Tom Nagel, Comcast's senior vice president and general manager for Wireless.  "Comcast is pleased to support this development program to spur further innovation with 4G capabilities.  The initiative is consistent with our own commitment and efforts to encourage developers to leverage open standards such as Tru2way."

"Sprint continues to demonstrate its leadership in the growth and deployment of 4G networks and technology and in the developer community," said Len Barlik, vice president of wireless and wireline services for Sprint.  "Sprint is the first carrier to offer an open community that gives developers the platforms and network to create innovative applications and the ability to introduce new services to the market.  The availability of 4G in the Silicon Valley is a great opportunity for developers to immediately begin the development of the next generation of wireless applications."

"Time Warner Cable looks to provide services that are simple, easy to use and give customers more control and convenience," said Michael Roudi, group vice president of wireless services for Time Warner Cable.  "We are proud to support the efforts of developers in the Silicon Valley to experiment and create new applications which will take advantage of the mobile broadband network and enhance our customer's wireless experience."

Conclusions

The Silicon Valley community is very pleased to have Clearwire's Innovation Network up and running.  In particular, IEEE ComSoc SCV members have expressed a strong interest in mobile broadband applications for netbooks and notebooks as well as for hand held devices.  We hope to report results of these application developments in forthcoming articles.  IEEE ComSoc SCV is also looking forward to hosting a panel session in early 2010 where Innovation Network participants will describe the tangible take-aways and lessons learned from this very important endeavor.

_________

Footnotes:

(1) http://www.wimax.com/commentary/blog/blog-2009/april-2009/Commercial-WiMAX-Network-Planned-for-Silicon-Valley-0410

Web References

http://newsroom.clearwire.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=214419&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1331811&highlight=

http://www.wimax360.com/profiles/blogs/clear-launch-in-sf-bay-area

http://www.wimax360.com/profiles/blogs/silicon-valley-becoming-the-4g

Sunday, September 20, 2009 in Business  | Permalink |  Comments (13)

India's Upcoming WiMAX Auction

India's 3G and WiMAX spectrum auctions are planned to commence this year paving the way for Mobile Internet and Fixed Broadband Wireless Access.

Introduction

India's IT/ Telecommunications Minister, Andimuthu Raja, has stated that the government will start the auction of licenses for high-speed wireless services within the next three months.   Many feared that the long delayed auctions might not start until sometime in 2010, so this could be good news.   In November 2008, India's Telecommunications ministry picked NM Rothschild & Sons Ltd.  as the independent auctioneer to help it sell the permits and aimed to complete the process by early 2009, but that never happened.

The auction to operate 3G mobile-phone services and fixed wireless broadband (WiMAX) services will earn India about 250 billion rupees (US$5.1B), Raja said.   The starting price for each slot of 3G spectrum is 35 billion Indian Rupees (US$716M), lower than the (US$827M) price previously signaled by the government but higher than the original (US$413M) price suggested.   "Since the number of slots are only four, the auction price will be more," Raja said.  

Three available blocks of spectrum in the 2.3 and 2.5GHz band will be auctioned separately for fixed broadband wireless access services.   The so called "WiMAX auction" will be held after the 3G auctions are completed and are expected to follow a similar process.   The government ministers also set a base price of 17.5 billion rupees for permits to operate fixed broadband wireless (WiMAX) services.

As noted above, the 3G and WiMAX spectrum auctions had been scheduled to take place in January this year, but were subject to repeated delays that have allowed government controlled operators BSNL and MTNL to deploy 3G services ahead of privately owned rival carriers.   Those operators had already received licenses for one of the five blocks of spectrum to be allocated for wireless broadband (more in the next section of this article).

It was hoped that early auctions of 3G and WiMAX licenses would result in a growing market for mobile Internet in India, which has much potential and promise.   India is now the second largest wireless market in the world, but almost all of it comes from cellular voice and SMS (rather than from wireless Internet access).   India's cellular operators added 11.59 million subscribers in May, taking the country's total to 415.25 million, according to the latest figures from Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI).  

Spectrum Auction Logistics & Details

The government intends to allocate 4 blocks of unpaired 20MHz spectrum in each of the 22 service areas (see map below), with 2 blocks in the 2.3GHz band and 2 blocks in the 2.5GHz band.   One block in the 2.5GHz band will be reserved for MTNL (in Delhi and Mumbai) and BSNL (in all other service areas) and the remaining 3 blocks will be put up for auction.

The India Telecommunications Ministry had restricted the sale of radio bandwidth to five blocks (or slots), of which one has already been allotted to state-run Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd.  (BSNL) and Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd.   (MTNL), ahead of the proposed auctions.   So that leaves four blocks left.   While BSNL operates in 20 of the country's 22 telecom service areas, MTNL provides service in the remaining two.   The two companies will be paying the government the highest bid amount resulting from the auction process.   The government also announced that blocks in the 700 MHz and 3.3-3.6 GHz bands will be auctioned as they become available to offer Fixed WiMAX and rural wireless broadband segments to consumers.  

 

Source: Government of India, Ministry of Communications & Information Technology

The terms and conditions for the Auction of 3G and BWA Spectrum in India is specified in this 130 page memorandum.   Note that in this document, BWA spectrum auctions for 2.3 MHz and 2.5 MHz spectrum is likely to be used for WiMAX services.


WiMAX in India  - Claims & Counter-Claims

If you perceive the following two news reports -published on the same day -contradictory, then you don't understand India.   It is a country that its full of contradictions and, in this case, different interpretations of the same government announcements.

1.  WiMAX in 150 Indian Cities within 90 days
EE Times - India reports that approximately 150 cities in India would have wireless broadband service through WiMAX in just 90 days, once the 20MHz spectrum is allotted to four operators in each geographical circle.  Observers at the WiMAX India 2009 conference believe that a WiMAX network operator could serve many subscribers with good quality service.  However, much would depend upon early implementation of the proposed auction of the spectrum reserved for BWA. 

"India is ready for broadband experience" said C.S. Rao, chairman of WiMAX Forum India.  "Wireless is the key to broadband," he said.  Not all participants were so sanguine.  Commenting on the poor broadband penetration despite huge WiMAX potential, Bharti Airtel group Chief Technology Officer Jagbir Singh said that "price points are not good while scalability is an issue."  He and several other experts at the conference called for the government to expedite the spectrum auction in order to accelerate WiMAX-based broadband penetration in India.


2.   WiMAX bidders may not get spectrum in a hurry
The successful WiMAX bidders are unlikely to get spectrum immediately after the auction as the government may offer only a 'conditional license'.   "The WiMax spectrum is not immediately available.   We may offer conditional license to the successful bidders, and that the spectrum would be given after six months or whenever it is be available," department of telecom (DoT) secretary Siddhartha Behura told reporters on the sidelines of an event organized by the internet service providers association of India (Ispai).   On August 27th, the India government announced that the auction for 3G and WiMax spectrum is likely to happen in the next three months.   Behura said that the auction for 3G and WiMax would be conducted simultaneously with a lag of 15 days (We take this to mean that the WiMAX auction would start 15 days after the 3G auction ends).


Comments & Concerns

We have written on WiMAX in India extensively in the last three years- holding our breath, waiting for the auctions to take place.   Only after the spectrum is acquired can the wireless operators begin to build out their networks.  When will that be?  No date has been set for the auction to start.  So our first concern is that precious time has already been lost on the path to mobile Internet and fixed BWA.   Will India's WiMAX potential be squandered?

A second concern is that the number of projected India WiMAX subscribers is too high.   The WiMAX Forum forecasts that India will have 19 million WiMAX subscribers by 2012, or 20% of the world's WiMAX user base.  The Economic Times of India, citing a study by US market research firm Strategy Analytics, reports that India will become the largest WiMAX market in the Asia-Pacific by 2013.   That study predicts India's WiMAX subscriber base to reach 14 million by Year 2013 and grow annually at nearly 130%.   The study also projects initial investment in WiMAX ventures will top $500M in India.

Gartner Group is much more conservative, forecasting that India will have 6.9 million mobile and fixed WiMAX connections by the end of 2011.   On March 21, 2008, we heard directly from Andimuthu Raja at meeting that took place at the India Community Center in Milpitas, CA.   At that time, Raja stated that only he expected only 10M WiMAX subscribers by 2011.   We thought that was quite disappointing for a country that has over 1 billion residents.  But how can India be a leading WiMAX country with such a small number of subscribers?

The third and perhaps most important concern is that true mobile WiMAX will not happen in India, despite Intel's efforts to promote the technology and furnish low cost netbooks.   At the end of 2008, India's mobile service providers boasted nearly 347 million connections, a year-on-year increase of nearly 50 percent.   The government expects the subscriber base for combined wireless and wireline connections to touch 600 million by the end of 2012, from 404 million at the end of April, this year.   But the mobile WiMAX component may likely to be much smaller - with WiMAX used for fixed wireless broadband Internet access by business and some residential customers.   Most companies in India plan to use 3G services for mobile Internet and WiMAX for fixed broadband access.





 

Tuesday, September 01, 2009 in Business  | Permalink |  Comments (25)

Mobile Internet Data & Implications for the Wireless Industry

Can the growth of mobile data live up to the hype given the current capacity of wireless networks? Interview with Andrew Odlyzko, Professor of Mathematics at the University of Minnesota and expert on internet traffic patterns and growth.

Introduction:

Due to the success of smart phones, app stores, and open platforms, a strong consensus now holds that mobile data is creating the next telecom revolution.  The volume of data transmitted over mobile wireless networks is skyrocketing, growing at rates over 100% per year. 

But is that growth rate sustainable? Bandwidth per user will continue to be limited by overall 3G-network capacity.  Moreover, considerable CAPEX would be required to upgrade mobile networks to 4G.  Also, most subscribers are unwilling to pay rates in excess of $50 or even $70 per month, which most mobile operators need to get a reasonable ROI .  Yet wireless data growth conjures up "visions of sugar plums" for many telecom professionals and wireless industry stakeholders.

To examine the hype vs.  reality of mobile Internet data growth, we checked in with Professor Andrew Odlyzko - a former AT&T Researcher who exposed the myth of exponential (wireline) Internet traffic growth back in 1998 - just prior to the dot com bust and optical networking melt down.  Odlyzko has been tracking Internet traffic trends for over 12 years.  During most of that time period, the actual traffic growth did not live up to the over-hyped projections.

Based on an IGI Group tele-briefing and a follow up series of interviews and email exchanges, we are pleased to bring you Professor Odlyzko's analysis and opinions. 

In this article, Odlyzko states why mobile Internet traffic growth will slow substantially, that the actual growth rate will be very difficult to predict, and that a large increase in CAPEX would be required to upgrade wireless network capacity so that it could support the explosive growth in mobile Internet traffic forecasted.  We'll explore the implications of this for 3G and 4G technologies, in conjunction with subscription policy and pricing plans of the cellular network operators.  In a maverick point of view, Odlyzko suggests that cellcos are missing a great opportunity by not pursuing higher quality voice.  Finally, we examine if "seamless mobility" between wireless and wireline networks is realizable.


Background:

While a researcher at AT&T, Dr. Odlyzko presented a talk on "Internet traffic trends" to a small audience in Rio di Janeiro, Brasil at IEEE Globecom- 1999.  His main theme was the fallacy of the enormous Internet traffic growth projections that were commonplace at that time.  Odlyzko's iconoclastic view seemed to contradict what his employer was doing - AT&T was busy building out its optical network backbone from 1998-2001.  Why would AT&T need a huge core network transport capacity if it didn't believe that Internet traffic growth was exploding off the charts?

Fast forward ten years later at Infocom 2009 in April (ironically at the same Sheraton hotel in Rio de Janeiro).  Professor Odlyzko presented a very similar talk on Internet traffic trends.  The key difference this year was that now the hype had shifted from wireline to wireless mobile networks.  According to Odlyzko, "The contents of the two presentations did not differ all that much in their essentials! Most of the false dogmas that were identifiable then still hold the industry in thrall today."


The Reality of Mobile Data:

- According to an Accenture study in March 2009, 54% in US "don't want or need mobile video." The number of people who watched video on their mobile phone grew from only 12% in late 2007 to 14% in late 2008.  This implies that any takeoff in mobile video will not likely be rapid, especially when mobile carriers are blocking video sites (AT&T currently blocks Slingbox media on the 3G iPhone).

- The worldwide mobile industry revenues were over $1 Trillion in 2008.  Of that total, 80% came from voice while most of rest was from text messaging (SMS).  But while Internet data revenue is very small, it still generates one-half of cellular network traffic¹ and this will only increase with smart phone penetration.  This poses a real dilemma for mobile operators- Internet data traffic is using much more of their network capacity, but they get the majority of their revenues from voice.

- Wireless traffic is growing at over 100% per year, far faster than wireless technology is progressing.  (We have written extensively about 3G topology tricks and other network upgrades that are happening very slowly).

- Traffic from smart phones is over 40 times that of a RIM Blackberry, which is used primarily for email.  The more smart phones sold, the more Internet traffic and the more pressure on overall cellular network capacity.  An executive from Ericsson recently claimed, "the iPhone has given us a new purpose for living."

- There is a low willingness to pay for mobile data by most subscribers, but especially those in developing countries.  The exception is for messaging and a few other services like email (but that's not the rich content that could be offered by a mobile broadband Internet).

-Voice is the "killer app" of yesterday, today, and tomorrow.  It has been severely underestimated by the cellcos who offer very poor voice quality over their mobile networks.  The opportunity for enhanced voice services is discussed later in this article.

- Mobile operators continue to be fixated on content and control, even though they would have to pay content providers for videos they deliver to their subscribers.  The Financial Times refers to mobile operators as" plumbers," that will be providing dumb wireless pipes that users will fill up with their own content.²  Odlyzko says, "The fraction of wireless capacity that voice takes will soon be quite small, so the rest of the pipe will be filled with various types of data.  User-generated data may well be the best way for mobile operators to utilize that extra capacity (note the popularity of You Tube, and that the user generated content creation does not cost Google or the carriers anything).


What's a Mobile Operator to Do?

There's an urgent need for mobile network operators to protect their cash cows - voice and SMS.  In order to achieve this objective, Professor Odlyzko believes that mobile carriers have incentives to use "kludgy" technology solutions to accommodate the growth of mobile data on their 3G networks.  Those solutions don't necessitate the huge increase in CAPEX that would be required for 4G mobile networks.  The solutions might include some combination of: off loading traffic to WiFi hotspots, pico-cells, more cell towers, assigning mobile Internet subscribers to cells based on their traffic patterns (rather than location), self organizing networks (many definitions of this), femto-cells (for home or small office), and other topology tricks.  In addition, higher capacity backhaul will be needed from cell towers to the wireline network point of presence (PSTN or Internet). 

But that's not all.  Significantly, the mobile operator will be throttling data traffic in one form or another, according to Odlyzko.  The metering of Internet traffic results in a data cap charging model, rather than a flat rate for "all you can eat" traffic.  He compares this metering of mobile Internet traffic to traffic lights that are strategically placed at the on- ramps of highways to slow down the flow of cars.  Giving mobile Internet users unlimited downstream and upstream data transport would most likely result in saturation of network capacity, which would jeopardize highly profitable voice traffic on 2G or 3G cellular networks.  Clearly, that must be avoided at all costs.  Hence, blocking high bandwidth video apps.

What about blocking high bandwidth apps (i.e.  video)? For example, AT&T currently blocks Slingbox video on its 3G network, but not on its WiFi hotspots.  Odlyzko believes there will be many a fight between "network neutrality" advocates and cellular operators over which applications are blocked on their mobile networks. 

Should operators allow or prohibit smart phone tethering (mobile phone acts as a cellular modem for an attached notebook PC - a feature of the 3G iPhone) on a 3G network? Currently, AT&T doesn't allow iPhone tethering.  Odlyzko thinks that mobile operators might allow smart phone tethering, but only for certain subscription plans, e.g.  in conjunction with a higher priced monthly subscription with a long- term contract that locks-up the subscriber for several years. 

Professor Odlyzko maintains that 3G networks are not adequate to keep up with the explosive growth in mobile data traffic.  "3G will have difficulty handling lots of video and it's a stop-gap measure," he says.  Nonetheless, 3G or 3G+ based mobile data networks will not necessarily hit a brick wall that would sharply curtail mobile data traffic and subscriber growth.  While growth data growth will continue, 3G networks should also be used for delivering better quality voice (more about this later in the article). 


The Difficulty in Quantifying Mobile Internet Traffic:

According to Odlyzko, mobile Internet traffic is likely to slow from over 100% per year to 30-40% per year.  An accurate prediction, however, is extremely difficult since mobile operators don't readily make available their traffic statistics or growth rates.  But equally important is that the combination of topology changes, metering, blocking and tiered pricing plans tend to create multiple feedback loops that will effect traffic growth in unknown ways.  "There are all kinds of knobs that the mobile operator can twirl to regulate mobile Internet traffic on its cellular network", says Odlyzko.  For example, if cellcos offered flat rate/uncapped mobile Internet access for $80 per month, how many road warriors or wealthy individuals would sign up? He thinks that $30 per month is needed for mass adoption of mobile Internet service (and so does this author).  Price per megabit of data transferred will continue to be a key issue for mobile network operators as will the CAPEX for upgrading mobile networks to support much higher volumes of data traffic.

Along the way there will be strong tussles between open network initiatives (e.g.  Google Android) that might encourage innovation vs.  the "walled gardens" of cellular network operators (e.g.  AT&T) that limit subscriber choices of devices and applications. 


Using 3G Networks to Deliver Higher Quality Voice & Services:

Odlyzko strongly believes that cellular operators have missed a great opportunity to offer enhanced, higher quality voice services - something that was envisioned when 3G was conceived more than two decades ago.  Most don't appreciate the "orality" of human culture- one reason video telephony never succeeded.  Odlyzko states, "There are definitely opportunities for higher quality voice.  Wireless voice quality is terrible… it has been selected to be the lowest quality one can have that people wouldn't reject."

Odlyzko suggests that wireless network operators wanting to get more value from voice telephony should consider creating higher-quality premium-priced services.  The cellular industry is so focused on video services that seems to have forgotten that there are opportunities to improve wireless voice services and make money in the process.  Here are a few examples of enhanced telephony services envisioned:

- Higher quality voice and audio (does anyone remember the 7KHz audio ISDN bearer service for higher quality voice and music?)
- Toll free calling, e.g.  free 1 800 calls
- Voice messaging that's easy to use and access
- More attractive pricing plans (cellular voice now cost 10X more than wireline voice and many free voice services are coming, e.g.  Skype and Google Voice)
- Combining voice with SMS based transaction processing (e.g.  paying taxicab fares)

There's also the important question about mobile VoIP.  Will it cannibalize the cellcos highly profitable cellular voice minutes? Odlyzko wonders how cellular operators will be able to incorporate mobile VoIP into their service and pricing plans.  Currently, AT&T blocks Skype on its 3G network and Apple has blocked Google Voice on the iPhone. 

Thoughts on 4G, Mobile WiMAX & LTE:

Odlyzko thinks that 4G might take six years or more to happen in a big way.  And a lot of CAPEX will be required for the necessary "forklift upgrade" of the Radio Access Network, Backhaul, and Network Management elements.  4G concepts are now so hazy that it is difficult to predict what kind of performance and availability users might expect from such networks.  Even when 4G is deployed, "seamless broadband mobility" is a fantasy because there are too many complicated issues that need to be resolved. 

Mobile WiMAX has potential.  (Clearwire has said its CLEAR network delivers on average 4 times the data rates of 3G networks at a lower price).  Odlyzko thinks that if the subscription and device costs are low enough, mobile WiMAX is likely to find many customers.  In fact, much of wireline traffic could shift to mobile WiMAX, as mobility is valuable to many people.  However, customer willingness to pay for just data, without voice- even for mobile data-is not high.³  It is hard to see how Mobile WiMAX could guarantee high quality for VoIP services and if it can't, will be stuck with low prices and low revenues, making its economics questionable.  Odlyzko asks us to recall the initial excitement and subsequent commercial failure of previous data-only wireless services, such as Ricochet. 

Odlyzko believes LTE will support voice by creating a separate logic network for it.  He speculates that a LTE network might actually be composed of two logically segregated "flat IP" networks: one for VoIP with different codecs and bandwidth used depending on quality desired, and one for data/video/multimedia/audio where much higher bandwidth is available.  The two networks would be strictly segregated in terms of overall bandwidth and QOS, but they might use the same physical transport and network infrastructure.


Is Seamless Mobility Possible?

Despite the widespread claims, Odlyzko believes that "seamless mobility" between mobile wireless and wireline networks is unrealistic.  "The problem with seamless mobility is the huge mismatch in bandwidth and traffic between wireless and photonic (optical network) connections", says Odlyzko.  Wireless data constitutes only about 1% of wireline data.  "So if you wanted to move all traffic to wireless radio channels, you would need 100x growth in wireless network capacity and CAPEX, which I don't see happening any time soon." (Odlyzko points out that the growth in wireless network capacity would have to be even larger, since the wireline network capacity is still growing.)

What will the future bring? Odlyzko thinks that we are likely to have a universe of many hot spots, with nearby fiber offering very high wireline speeds.  There will also be relatively high (although lower) short-range wireless speeds.  In between (i.e., almost everywhere else, in terms of area) we'll have much slower speeds commensurate with 3G, 3G+, or 4G mobile networks.


Summary and Conclusions:

- A combination of topology changes, tiered pricing, and mobile operator policies will scale back mobile data traffic growth to 30% or 40% from over 100% per year now.

- Mobile network operators will have a tough time offering true high quality data services without negatively impacting their very profitable voice services.  (This is because 3G networks are bandwidth limited, resulting in high volumes of data consuming the bandwidth that would otherwise be used for voice calls.) The result will be data caps and blocking of high bandwidth traffic types by the mobile operators.

- There are likely to be a lot of "net neutrality" debates as cellcos block high bandwidth consuming traffic types, e.g.  Slingbox, Bit Torrent, Hulu, etc and also from prohibiting smart phone tethering.

- Cellcos should seriously consider providing enhanced voice services to 3G subscribers.

- Mobile WiMAX has potential if the subscription price is low enough and good quality voice capability is added as a service (VoIP over WiMAX).

- 4G is a very fuzzy paradigm, which will take longer to realize than most experts believe.  When LTE goes mainstream, it may actually be two logically segregated flat-IP networks.



Andrew Odlyzko:

Andrew Odlyzko is a Professor in the School of Mathematics at the University of Minnesota.  He had a long career in research and research management at Bell Labs and AT&T Labs, and then built an interdisciplinary research center and handled other positions in research administration jobs in Minnesota.  He has .written over 150 technical papers in computational complexity, cryptography, number theory, combinatory, coding theory, analysis, probability theory, and related fields.  In recent years he has also been working in electronic commerce, economics of data networks, and economic history, especially on diffusion of technological innovation.  Among his current projects is the MINTS effort, which monitors trends in Internet traffic.  More information is available on his web site.

Footnotes:

1 - Cellular voice and mobile data traffic are each around 70 petabyte/month, in contrast to wireline Internet traffic of over 7,000 petabyte/month.

2 - Profit slump coming for US mobile network operators? August 3, 2009 (FT subscription required).

3 - With the exception of the HTC device sold only in Russia, no WiMAX phones are available at this time.

References:

1 - Internet pricing and the history of communications, Computer Networks 36 (2001), pp.  493-517

2 - Internet pricing in light of the history of communication, Scalability and Traffic Control in IP Networks, S.  Fahmy and K.  Park, eds., Proc.  SPIE, vol.  4526 (2001), pp.  237-243

3 - Odlyzko: lousy voice leaves telco value on the shelf, Grahame Lynch, CommsDay, Jan.  28, 2009 (Telcos are leaving revenues on the shelf through their refusal to offer quality voice services, according to contrarian academic Professor Andrew Odlyzko.)


 

Sunday, August 16, 2009 in Business  | Permalink |  Comments (24)