By Julien Regoli, Vice - President Operations - Maravedis

Contact the author at julien@maravedis-bwa.com

Today
WiBro is a hot topic in Korea these days. In less than three months after the commercial launch of WiBro in April, Korea Telecom has accumulated 20,000 WiBro subscribers, raking in 6.3 billion won of revenues in Q2 2007. In July, KT disclosed that 300–400 new subscribers were being added each day and was expecting 10,000 more subscribers in July than in June. KT attributes the recent growth to several factors: the resolution of certain coverage problems, the increased service use by teenagers during summer vacation, the introduction of a WiBro USB modem for laptop users, and the strengthening of its online and offline sales networks.

Short-term Forecast
KT expects growth to continue, saying that service bundling of broadband internet and the HSDPA service of KTF (KT’s affiliate and the nation’s No. 2 mobile operator) will affect sales positively. KT also expects laptop rental services and the joint marketing campaign with Daewoo Securities to contribute to this growth.

KT is sticking to its end-of-2007 target of 200,000 WiBro subscribers. To meet this, KT will have to sign up 176,000 subscribers in five months. That’s an average of 35,200 subscribers per month or 1,173 subscribers per day.

Long-term Forecast
A recent study conducted by IDC Korea predicts that WiBro users will rise from about 130,000 in 2007 to 600,000 in 2008, 1.4 million in 2009, and 3.9 million in 2011. However, if the market is boosted by various killer applications and devices, the figures will be as high as 800,000 for 2008 and 5 million for 2011, said the report. It also said that KT will establish its WiBro version 2 network, supporting upload at 8 Mbps and download at 34.6 Mbps, which in turn may prompt a race with HSUPA (the expected replacement of HSDPA), which promises a maximum speed of 5.76 Mbps.

WiBro Subscriber Profile
KT recently reported that 60% of WiBro subscribers are professionals in their 30s and 40s, while 25% are college students in their 20s. The company noted that customers are happy with WiBro’s speed, access, and price, but are dissatisfied with devices’ pricing and availability. KT is responding by subsidizing laptop purchasers with 90,000–240,000 won and WiBro-phone or USB-modem buyers with 150,000 won.

WiBro Interoperability
WiBro awaits the ITU’s decision on the 3G global standard. Following the 22nd Meeting of ITU-R Working Party 8F held in May in Kyoto, Japan, it was proposed to include IP-OFDMA (Mobile-WiMAX/WiBro) in the existing IMT-2000 standard for approval. The final decision will be made at the meeting of SG8.

The Korean ministry expects the inclusion of IP-OFDMA in IMT-2000 to boost the use of WiBro and enhance Korea’s leadership in next-generation mobile technology.

The ministry also said that the ITU World Radio Communication Conference 2007 (WRC-07) in October will fix the 4G frequency allocation. The global standard for IMT-Advanced will be selected by the end of 2010 among candidate technologies proposed by member countries by July 2009.

Also, the Electronics and Telecommunications Research Institute (ETRI) said that it held working group meetings of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) 802.21 on standardization of seamless mobile service over June 13–15 in Korea. The meeting was attended by standardization organizations and major players in the industry from the U.S., Japan, Canada, and Singapore to finalize the first draft specification for Media Independent Handover (MIH) protocols and seamless handover scenario, said the ETRI.

The IEEE 802.21 working group currently is conducting standardization of the MIH to ensure seamless mobile services between cellular, WiFi, and WiBro networks.

The ETRI said, “The meeting was held at a critical juncture before the sponsor ballot in July 2007. Participants gave the final touch to the MIH during the meeting.”

Conclusion
WiBro is now a subset of the broader WiMAX standard. The chance for international acceptance depends on success of WiMAX in gaining further regulatory mandates including IMT-2000 and IMT-Advanced and on continued building of commercial momentum. As a stand-alone effort, WiBro has been disappointing in the number of subscribers. This is likely to improve once WiMAX-certified products are available and global roaming becomes meaningful.

Like WiMAX, WiBro can leverage 3G market momentum through multi-mode device availability and roaming capabilities and through agreements with 3G cellular. WiBro can also leverage the success of WiFi, but the longer-term advantage comes from the single wide-area connection that WiMAX/WiBro provides.

** Information in this article is derived from various recent news clips found on Korea Telecoms’ news service **