At this time there is little controversy over the fact LTE (Long Term Evolution) will become the dominant global 4G wireless technology over the next ten years. The only real issue at this point is when most carriers will opt to migrate to LTE and how long HSPA+ and CDMA EVDO Rev A will delay LTE deployments.
But the wireless world does not just include mobile wireless, particularly high-end, 3.5G and 4G, mobile wireless. India and China, the Middle East and Africa, the South American continent and parts of the Asia-Pacific region are examples of this; lower-tier technology markets due to spending constraints of the subscriber audience.
Many areas within these regions are also severely lacking in broadband infrastructure due to the same lack of spending power among the potential subscriber audience. This is changing however due to government efforts, falling prices on broadband access and cheaper access devices, such as the ultra-low-cost PC.
The Large and Growing World Fixed Broadband Market
There were nearly 467 million fixed broadband subscribers worldwide by 4Q 2009, according to the Broadband Forum, an industry trade group for wireline broadband providers and associated industry members headquartered in Fremont, California. Much of this growth was in areas that had been lacking broadband access.
During 2009 there were 58 million broadband lines added during the year, with the fourth quarter showing the greatest growth.
Visant Strategies foresees the number of broadband subscribers growing to over one billion by year-end 2016. Overall this would mean a 14% fixed broadband penetration rate when comparing the world population to the overall number of fixed broadband subscribers in the world. While that seem like a small percentage, the number in year-end 2009 stood at 7%.
Broadband Growth Worldwide Means Great Fixed WiMAX Potential
The 3.5 GHz spectrum that WiMAX systems are largely deployed in could prove to be very useful for high density zones. The drawbacks to large deployments, however, in these bands include network ownership, lack of coverage, device availability and competition with Wi-Fi in some cases.
WiMAX has a substantial support community and it is rapidly becoming the de facto standard for 3.5 GHz networks around the world. These networks will mainly be fixed and portable due to legal restriction and financial challenges inherent to deploying a mobile wireless network in the 3.5 GHz band. These challenges include the facts many base stations are required for good network coverage and providing in-building service is difficult.
Wireless replacement of DSL/cable modems is expected to become a $2-$3 billion annual market and WiMAX will play prominently here. This is the "sure thing" for WiMAX vendors and some of these networks could grow to blur the line between fixed and mobile networks over time.
Solid Progress has been Made on WiMAX/Broadband Costs
Vendors of broadband wireless equipment once sold their user devices for from $500 to $1,000 with base stations costly more than $50,000 in three sector macro configurations. Today these prices are much more viable; basic WiMAX user devices range from $50 to $100 in various form factors including USB devices and modem CPEs. Base stations that can support thousands of users can be purchased for under $10,000.
These profound changes are achievements that the fixed wireless community was unable to attain prior to the acceptance of a unified standard and they enable a market for low cost fixed broadband while also facilitating mobile applications.
Moving to Mobile
Vendor support along with a large established fixed/portable WiMAX audience will seed the move to a larger mobile WiMAX uptake. It is an easy transition from fixed/portable WiMAX systems that will enable some growth of the mobile WiMAX market; changes in software and deploying a good network are the basic steps in moving from fixed/portable to mobile.
Building good coverage in a mobile WiMAX market is harder due to those building on 3.5GHz compared to lower bands at 2.3GHz and 2.6GHz since the higher propagation obviously needs more dense deployments, particularly for in-building coverage. One advantage when moving from fixed/portable WiMAX to mobile WiMAX is that operators will be able to grow their networks organically and build out coverage as subscriber receipts and subscriber numbers build.
In many cases fixed/portable WiMAX networks will be built in underserved markets allowing for this organic growth to build the coverage and capacity needed to go mobile as subscribers become used to broadband and eventually begin to seek use of mobile broadband.
New WiMAX Specifications Arrive on Time
Changes within the new specification for mobile WiMAX, or 802.16m, will first start to appear in WiMAX gear in enhanced 802.16e, allowing many of the perceived shortcomings mobile wireless carriers had about mobile WiMAX to be corrected. These new features, improvements on N=1 capabilities, better controlled self-interference, a superior uplink budget and stability in the soft handoff mode, all speak to the future market of mobile WiMAX.
Depending on whose view one takes, these specifications are either a result of the WiMAX community realizing these upgrades must be made to find acceptance in the mobile wireless market or a planned step in the evolution of the fixed/portable WiMAX market to a larger-than-today mobile WiMAX market.
While LTE has been chosen and announced as the 4G choice of many leading mobile wireless carriers throughout the world, many other mobile carriers, especially those considered second-or third-tier carriers, do not plan to move to LTE due to budget restraints set forth by the mobile carrier's ARPU and the anticipated low use of data applications for their subscriber audience.
802.16m could be a tool that these carrier use, though it is more likely to be employed by holders of 3.5GHz spectrum to further enhance their profitability and capabilities of their fixed/portable networks, blurring the line in some cases between portability and mobility.
Larry Swasey
Andy Fuertes
Visant Strategies
www.visantstrrategies.com
From the July 2010 Visant Strategies report ""Fixed, Portable and Mobile WiMAX: Building a Market Today and Influencing Choices Tomorrow." For more information contact Visant Strategies at
This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it
